Putin beordrar styrkor att gå in i Ukraina - INVASION NU (2022-02-24)

Helsingforskommissionen, som lyder under USA:s administration, krävde på onsdagen att USA tillåter Ukraina att slå till mot ryska trupper som opererar i det rysk-ukrainska gränsområdet.
- Rysslands förestående framryckning i Kharkiv-regionen hotar miljontals civilas liv och äventyrar Ukrainas försvar. USA måste inte bara tillåta, utan också uppmuntra, Ukrainas väpnade styrkor att slå till mot ryska styrkor som skjuter och opererar längs gränsen, och dela underrättelser för att förhindra massiva förluster av liv, skrev Helsingforskommissionen i X.
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ISW har tidigare bedömt att USA:s restriktioner har skapat en fristad för den ryska militären i områden nära den ukrainska gränsen. Därifrån kan ryska flygplan inleda luft- och robotangrepp mot ukrainska trupppositioner och befolkningscentra. I gränsområdet kan ryssarna också flytta sin utrustning och sina trupper i lugn och ro innan de går ut i strid.
- Denna amerikanska praxis äventyrar allvarligt Ukrainas förmåga att försvara sig mot ryska offensiva operationer i norra Kharkiv-regionen, skrev ISW i sin senaste rapport.

Ukraine’s constitution holds that the country may not hold parliamentary elections until martial law, in effect since February 24, 2022, is lifted, and for six months thereafter. Several laws would need to be changed in order for presidential elections to be held, which raises its own problems. Even if a legal solution could be found, security, financial, and organizational obstacles to holding free, fair, and representative elections are far more serious.

President Zelensky is not opposed to holding elections but insists they must be held in accordance with the highest standards of democratic elections possible and should not detract from the country’s national defense efforts. Many Ukrainian civic organizations promoting free and fair elections agree on the need to held elections only when the right conditions are present to ensure the integrity of the process and results.

Security is an overarching concern. Almost 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory is occupied. Some settlements are entirely destroyed, while others lack the necessary infrastructure to enable voting. With Russian military forces targeting civilian infrastructure, ensuring the safety of voters, election officials, and observers is simply impossible. President Zelensky has suggested that Western election advocates share in the risks, perhaps by stationing election observers in the trenches to assure the world of the legitimacy of the elections.

Funding the elections is another major problem. According to the Central Election Committee's 2023 calculations, the presidential elections are estimated to cost around $196.7 million, while the parliamentary elections may require approximately $135.9 million. At the same time, Ukraine’s 2024 budget anticipates $43.7 billion in revenues but almost twice that, $82.3 billion, in expenditures, without including election costs. The difference is projected to be covered by international loans and grants.

President Zelensky has stated that he will not hold elections on credit, nor will he “take money from weapons and give it to elections.” Instead, he has suggested that Western countries, especially the United States, that are pressing Ukraine to hold elections could help fund them, in this way sharing the financial risk. With funding and security assured, the country could potentially develop a legal framework to hold elections during wartime, he implied.

That said, Ukraine has learned the hard way that the essence of elections extends beyond the voting day; it encompasses extended campaigns during which society can have honest debates on a range of divisive issues. To preserve national unity for a people facing existential threat is a life-and-death matter. Even antagonistic political forces are reluctant to gain office at the expense of losing the country.

This is why the Ukrainian parliament’s opposition leaders signed a joint statement that both parliamentary and presidential elections should take place after the cessation of the war and the conclusion of martial law. The document indicates a consensus among major political parties regarding the need for an appropriate period of time to prepare for elections and favorable conditions for campaigning and voting.