Putin beordrar styrkor att gå in i Ukraina - INVASION NU (2022-02-24)

UKRAINE HAS STARTED FIRING MORE ARTILLERY SHOTS PER DAY THAN RUSSIA.

🚃 For the first time since the beginning of the invasion: Ukraine has surpassed Russia in an important indicator

According to the UA War Infographics Telegram channel, for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale war, Ukraine has started firing more artillery shots per day than Russia. Although, as noted, Russia used to have a significant advantage in this indicator.

What appears to be a fairly reasonable explanation of the Avdiivka situation from the Russian source. Essentially, the northern wing of the encirclement achieved some goals quickly, but in the south, they bogged down, and Ukrainians reacted accordingly. The quick attempt to encircle Avdiivka failed and sides switched to the more familiar "battles for forester's huts".

About the situation near Avdeevka.

It didn't work out quickly to surround it. If the northern wing powerfully moved forward and by the end of the day occupied a strategically important height - the waste heap at Coke factory, then the south ran into the Ukrainian defense, began to act in a stereotyped manner, suffered losses and, in the end, failed to cope with the task. The command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces almost immediately assessed the scale of the threat and began to transfer human reserves and artillery here, even using expensive Himars to strike our advancing infantry and stabilized the situation by morning.

By this morning, the operation had taken on, already familiar in this war, character of a "battle for the forester's hut" - heavy battles for each strong point. Berdychi, Stepove and Opytne act as the "forester's hut". There is a continuous exchange of artillery strikes. Despite having a significant superiority in the number of artillery, our counter-battery fire still cannot effectively suppress long-range Ukrainian self-propelled guns, which are constantly changing their positions, delivering their attacks from distances where our artillery practically does not reach, covering our attacking formations and pinning the infantry to the ground. Although the work of the Lancets is effective, their response speed does not allow them to quickly "shut up" the Ukrainian artillery. "Lancets" are more "hunters" than "response". When the front will finally see systems capable of effectively and efficiently fighting Ukrainian artillery, one can only guess.

Update to the unfolding assault on Avdeevka, now in its fourth day: Russian troops have consolidated positions in the countryside around the town's flanks and are beginning to assault the first set of "outer" strongpoints in the villages of Berdychi, Stepove, and Sjeverne.

Fighting has also been reported in the large industrial complex dominating the north of town, suggesting that reports Russian troops withdrew from the industrial spoil heap across the railroad to its northeast - which originated from Russian war correspondents earlier today - were probably deliberately-spread misinformation to sow confusion prior to an attack. It's in the Russian interest right now to throw smoke in the information sphere and voenkors will happily help out in this regard.

Russian losses thus far in the operation have been mild - one count I saw had it at three tanks and nine IFVs, mostly damaged and recoverable, which is more than I've seen personally. Ukrainian claims otherwise should be dismissed as the usual propaganda. Russian troops have had no problem massing and maneuvering around Avdeevka in large armored columns, suggesting that Ukrainian artillery in the area is very suppressed. Russian bombing and artillery fire has been reported as extremely heavy over the last several days.

Ukrainian reserves have been stripped from the rest of the front to send to Avdeevka, which should put an end to any offensive plans they may have over the winter. On the other hand those reserves will now have to be engaged with and destroyed to finish the job of securing the city.

I don't expect this to be another Bakhmut. A battle on the timeframe of Mariupol would be more within my expectations. I think the Russians are filling the operational calendar here for the mud season and keeping pressure on the AFU while they wait for better conditions for large-scale maneuver later in the year - and pushing the front line back from Donetsk is an added bonus.

I've used Military Summary's map today because Rybar's latest map was so bad (and so late) that my disinformation sense went off.