Putin beordrar styrkor att gå in i Ukraina - INVASION NU (2022-02-24)

When we saw the location of the Bradleys, Leopard 2R, and other key equipment from the 47th Mechanized Brigade last month, it was clear that was the main effort. If Ukraine continues to commit its forces in this direction, it indicates they have not changed the priority axis.

Confirmation that the main thrust is the Orikhiv axis, which was clear from the 47th Mechanized Brigade's presence.

Romanov talks about "very serious risk" of Russians leaving the village of Staromairoske which will lead to the surrender of Urozhaine. He says the Russian command is unable to contain the situation.

Ukrainian officials have told U.S. officials that the enlarged Ukrainian force would try to advance south through Russia’s minefields and other fortifications toward the city of Tokmak, and, if successful, on to Melitopol, near the coast.

The new operation, if successful, could take one to three weeks, Ukrainian officials have told officials in Washington.

Ukraine now appears to have a solid presence on three sides of Robotyne. The Russian position appears to be untenable. As I mentioned a few days ago, Robotyne matters because it puts Tokmak—a key Russian logistics node—in range of tube artillery. While it is already in range of GMLRS rocket artillery, those munitions are limited and expensive. It’s the difference between being able to hit Russian supplies with $100K+ GMLRS rockets and $8,000 extended-range artillery shells.
In the direction of that third arrow all the way to the right, toward Staromlynivka, Ukraine has entered the northern part of Staromayorske. Remember, Ukraine’s general staff claimed, “Ukrainian Defence forces have success at Staromayorske,” and there is evidence of the truth of that matter.