Putin beordrar styrkor att gå in i Ukraina - INVASION NU (2022-02-24)

Karaganov sees a bright future for Russia after the use of nuclear weapons: he finds that if the USA are frightened in this way it will be possible to build a “multipolar, multicultural, multicoloured” world.

The idea of using nuclear weapons to avert a nuclear apocalypse does not seem self-contradictory to Karaganov. “I have said and written many times that if we correctly build a strategy of intimidation and deterrence and even use of nuclear weapons, the risk of a ‘retaliatory’ nuclear or any other strike on our territory can be reduced to an absolute minimum”, he argues. However, he fails to give a clear explanation of how to do this.

Talk of using nuclear weapons in Russia's war in Ukraine is "irresponsible," Alexander Dugin, an influential ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, warned on Thursday.

"I think this is an extreme case. I believe that we are far from having exhausted all the possibilities of victory without the use of nuclear weapons," the Russian political commentator told news outlet Fontanka on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Form.

Joe Biden and other western leaders have been wise to face these wild threats with messages of calm deterrence and firm defence measures. --- Nevertheless, the notion that the Russian ruling class, including its top man, are unhinged about these devastating weapons is unnerving.

The fixation with nuclear apocalypse seems to be the symptom of a wider anxiety that the west is bent on Russian dismemberment because of its aspirations in Ukraine. The Kremlin argues that it only wanted to resume its ancestral right to a Slavic heartland, but that the US and Nato are seeking as punishment Russia’s full and complete destruction as a nation state.

This logic is ridiculous. Russia of course has national interests, but they cannot impinge on those of other countries. When they do, they must be reconciled without aggression. At this moment, with Russian troops perpetrating a bloody invasion of Ukraine, such a notion seems fanciful. Nevertheless, we can agree it is an ideal worth pursuing, and begin working on it.

As a first order of business, we can clarify that strategic defeat of Russia does not mean its dismemberment, but it does mean its exit from Ukraine, its willingness to atone for the invasion and the horrors that followed, and its readiness to repair the massive war damage. In those circumstances, we can co-operate with Russia to advance its interests, such as securing its borders and ensuring that its citizens live in peace and prosperity in a stable neighbourhood.

To bolster that message, we need to restore certain key principles of the post-cold war detente. One is that ready military forces should not deploy near borders without notifying their neighbours of the reason why. For Nato armies, such clarity is a no-brainer. Russia, having ignored this precept for many years, will have to be brought back to it. The more Moscow understands Nato intent and capabilities, the better it is for Russia — and vice versa.