Michael Kofman om 2023 och speciellt vintern
3 Scenarion
1
"The Russian line could collapse along one of*the fronts due to*low morale, insufficient supplies, and a*renewed Ukrainian offensive during the winter that takes advantage of*these conditions. This could yield another Ukrainian breakthrough, though such a*turn of*events is*well within the realm of*possibilities, it*is*optimistic."
2
"Alternatively, a*pessimistic outcome is*one where Russian forces are able to*reconstitute, and launch larger offensives after February, beyond current attacks in*Donetsk. This is*unlikely given constraints in*available ammunition, current quality of*manpower, and assumes there are no*major improvements in*force employment."
3
"Perhaps a*more probabilistic scenario for the next several months is*one of*a*dynamic front, characterized by*attrition, and localized offensives by*both sides, but one where Ukraine on*balance retains initiative, and can steadily progress towards its goals. After Kherson, the Russian military appears better positioned to*consolidate, and defend, but battles like Bakhmut and Pavlivka are cause for skepticism that it*can restore significant offensive potential. The Russian military is*focused on*taking Donetsk, hence the fixation on*capturing Bakhmut, and attempts at*positional gains in*the southern part of*this oblast."
Vidare Bahmutoffensiven är enligt Kofman inte meningslös, men den*är*strategiskt osund, med tanke på att det*inte*finns*någon*kapacitet för ett större*ryskt genombrott.
Se mer i Länken
https://ridl.io/the-russo-ukrainian-war-ten-months-in-taking-stock/