En intressant samling av predictions från ukrainsk sida:
"1. Estimates and forecasts of some experts
March 5, M. Kofman:
I try not to make too many predictions. I think, given all the problems in the Russian campaign, delusional assumptions, the inoperable concept of operations, low preparedness for such a long war, I give another ~3 weeks before these forces are depleted.
Exhausted in terms of combat capability. I don't know what will happen next. Maybe a ceasefire, when both sides reorganize and replenish stocks, maybe a settlement.
March 10, F. Fukuyama:
Russia's complete defeat in Ukraine is getting closer.
March 10, H. Grozev:
He was asked how long the war would last, and when Ukraine would come to victory over the Russian occupier.
- It is difficult to name the end, because, most likely, it will not be a sharp end, that, they say, the war is over today. I'm afraid there will be a period when it will be unclear whether the war is over or not. But there will be no more bloodshed, and this is the most important thing. I think we're getting closer to it. And it's a matter of a week or maybe 10 days," said Hristo Grozev.
March 11:
Elena Belozerskaya, officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
If Russia does not mobilize, everything will end with our victory in May-June. If he does, the war will last at least a year, but we will still win.
Nikolai Sungurovsky, Director of Military Programs of the Razumkov Center:
Here the question is not so much and not only in assessing the military capabilities of Ukraine and Russia. If on resource issues, they are already running out in Russia. That is, the most capable parts and connections have already been put into operation
Yegor Sobolev, soldier of the 130th Battalion 112 of the TRO Brigade:
I hope we will defeat the occupation armies by summer.
March 15, B. Hoges, B. Commander of the U.S. Armed Forces in Europe:
The next 10 days will solve this war.
Russian generals are running out of time, ammunition and living power. It's not based on any internal intelligence - it's clear from information from open sources and my own experience. I may be wrong, but I'm sure of this assessment.
The challenge of time for Russia is not only military. The consequences of sanctions are increasing - soon Russia may default on a debt of $150 billion in foreign currency - and discontent within Russia is also growing.
Russians are experiencing a shortage of ammunition. Their transition to a war of attrition increases the level of consumption beyond what they planned and can withstand.
Reports of low morale, disagreements between commanders, rebellion on at least one ship, desertion, etc. - all this during the first two weeks indicates serious problems with personnel. And in net numbers, the Ukrainian armed forces still exceed or are almost inferior to Russian forces on the territory of Ukraine.
March 15, B. Hoges:
The ability of the Russian army to attack Ukraine will run out in about ten days. They don't have three things: they don't have time, human strength, and I think they don't have ammunition. In about 10 days... I think that in the next 10 days Russia will reach its climax, which means that they will not be able to continue attacks," said the retired general.
March 20, M. Kofman:
About two weeks ago, I assumed that the Russian forces had about three weeks before their fighting capacity became increasingly exhausted. I think it was right in general, but we're not quite there yet.
April 12, M. Kofman:
I have already used the word "provno" several times in our discussion. I think it's one of the most suitable to explain the situation in the first phase of this war. They gathered all the battalions that could be assembled in a few weeks in Russia. Then they took it from Tajikistan, Abkhazia, Kaliningrad.
April 26, A. Arestovich:
Ukraine may launch a counteroffensive by the end of May."
https://aillarionov.livejournal.com/1301538.html
Antingen håller det på att gå helt åt helvete, eller så ljög de hela tiden. Det är intressant att studera glidningen. Framför allt skulle det vara intressant att höra vad de har för förklaringar på att de fick fel. Vilken data hade de inte?
