Putin beordrar styrkor att gå in i Ukraina - INVASION NU (2022-02-24)

COMPLIMENTARY TIMING INFO, ALL ERRORS ARE MINE
00:00 TRANSCRIPT FOX NEWS BEGINS
Colonel Douglas Maccregor: "The first five days, Russian forces, I think, frankly were too gentle. And they have now corrected that. So I would say another 10 days, this should be completely over. But the question is - what is it that Zelenskyy is going to do - the Russians have made it quite clear - what they want is a neutral Ukraine! This could have ended days ago if he had accepted that. And then they could adjust the border. But the eastern part of Ukraine is firmly in Russian hands but again the Russians are not seizing territory. They are destroying Ukrainian forces - that's the focus.
Anchor: "Colonel, it sounds like you don't approve of Zelenskyy's stand!"
Colonel Douglas Maccregor: "Oh I think Zelensky is a puppet. And he is putting huge numbers of his own population at unnecessary risk. And quite frankly most of what comes out of Ukraine is debunked as lies within 24 or 48 hours."
Anchor: "Oh?"
Colonel Douglas Maccregor: "The notions of taking and re-taking airfields - all of this is nonsense. It hasn't happened."
Anchor: "He's not a ..a a hero for standing himself and for the people? You don't think he's a hero?"
Colonel Douglas Maccregor: "No I do not. I don't see anything heroic about the man and I think the most heroic thing he could do right now is come to terms with reality. Neutralize Ukraine. This is not a bad thing. A neutral Ukraine would be good for us as well as for Russia. It would create the buffer that frankyl both sides want. But he is I think being told to hang on and try to drag this out which is tragic for the people who have to live through this."
Anchor: "I am inclined to disagree with you Colonel but hmmm ... I don't really see ... how this works out. Colonel Douglas Maccregor. Tough guy! Thanks for being with us, son (?sic?). See you again soon. Thank you!"
Colonel Douglas Maccregor: "???"
01:41 TRANSCRIPT FOX NEWS ENDS
01:43: Encirclement in Donbass in a cauldron seems in effect. 12 brigades of UKR army trapped there. A decisive event if indeed true. Organized resistance in eastern Ulkraine by the UKR army seems to be coming to an end.
02:30: Cauldron-ing has been a feature of Russian strategy since the Napoleonic wars.
02:30: (Explains the military concept of "cauldron")
03:50: Some uncorroborated reports that UKR troops being encircled are already running low on fuel & ammo. UKR has no military force that can break this encirclement.
04:25: Sooner or later this force is going to disintegrate or surrender and then the active part of the war will be over.
04:50: In the Donbass area, heavy fighting has not been done by the RUS army itself but rather by the militas of the Donetsk & Luhansk republics.
05:06: Smaller cauldrons of various UKR troops Mariupol. This is a civilian area. A future bigger battle seems to be more plausible here.
05:36: The major UKR strike force is now desperately vulnerable. Success will release the RUS military and Donbass militas to go into central Ukraine.
06:25: Unconfirmed reports that UKR has made first moves towards a retreat from Kharkov.
06:45: Tentative unconfirmed reports that UKR politician Arsen Borysovych Avakov (Minister of Internal Affairs / Interior Minister), trusted and leadership accepted in some sort by the far-right militas, arranges for the withdrawal from Kharkov to Kiev to make Kiev the last line of defense.
07:29: Again, stressing these are tentative and uncorroborated reports.
07:50: Counternarrative is that the UKR is holding firm in Kharkov and Kiev - but the people who promote this have little to say about the true center of gravity of the battle in eastern Ukraine.
08:29: It seem Kharkov is more of a sideshow in military terms while in Kiev there has been no fighting at all.
08:38: Syria vs Ukraine.
09:03: As said previously, RUS does not make rigid distinction between diplomacy and war fighting, as we do in the West.
09:30: Similar to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 where the US held negotiations with Saddam Hussein's government even as its army advanced. Typical of how the Russians work.
10:02: Why there hasn't been an assault on Kiev: not due to resistance nor to logistical problems, but RUS wants to negotiate for a settlement on their terms.
10:49: Consider the "Siege of Aleppo" of 2016.
10:49: With Russian air support the Syrian military were able to encircle Aleppo, but no attempts was made to storm the city. Instead, negotiations with multiple ceasefires and humanitarian corridors were established.
12:20: Humanitarian corridors are intended to allow civilians to leave the areas and to isolate fighters and for those fighters to negotiate an exit, leaving their weapons behind.
13:20: Once the fighters left, the (Syrian) military moved in, taking the areas essentially intact.
13:35: RUS position their forces around cities with large numbers of UKR troops and then negotiate: humanitarian corridors to let civilians leave but also to allow (disarmed) UKR troops to leave as well.
14:26: In Syria, a sanctuary was created for those fighters in Idlib, which is still outside Syrian control. Something similar will probably be worked out here, with western Ukraine - the former Habsburg province of Galicia, with capital Lvov - as sanctuary.
15:15: In Syria, negotations were mainly held between RUS and the government sponsoring those fighters: the Turkish government. In the current case, negotiations are taking place in Belarus between RUS & UKR.
16:16: (I have always been) deeply cynical about the proposal of RUS to settle in Syria, and similarly for Ukraine.
17:45: ... the Russians know perfectly well that the Kiev government is unable to meet their demands. So the purpose is to isolate the government of Kiev, and perhaps to split the government in Kiev or various politicians that make up that government from the radicals who will be more willing to fight to the end.
18:50: So this is what this all about:
18:50: 1) Drain the UKR military out of the cities 2) Start to play the various factions off against each other in order to identify those people the Russian believe they can work with.
19:30: Successful in Syria & Chechnya during the long war in the 2000s. Chechnya is now fully embedded in the Russian power structure.
20:35: When I speak of Ukraine I mean: eastern and central Ukraine, the Russian-speaking orthodox areas, which before WWII were part of the Soviet Union and earlier, part of the Czarist Empire. (I do not believe that) RUS want to bring Galicia into the system: irreconcilable and not important enough for their purposes. It is likely to serve as sanctuary area for fighters rather than anything else.
21:54: Westerners do not understand this! Commentaries (apply the events to the context of) western approaches.
22:25: Westerners expect the large force to storm Kiev but it is actually there to apply pressure.
22:55: Explanation by a narrative of resistance: There is some but not much. It is said that Gostomel Airport (Wikipedia: Hostomel (or Gostomel) Airport, is an international cargo airport and testing facility in Ukraine, located near Hostomel, which is a northwestern suburb of Kyiv) which the RUS captured on the first day, had been recaptured by UKR, but a Russian TV team was there and the airport fully under Russian control (Wikipedia page: "Battle of Antonov Airport"). Impression of not much fighting in or around Kiev at all.
23:56: Narrative of RUS suffering logistic problems: again at the moment there are no orders to advance straight into the city of Kiev. The force is there to exert pressure.
24:50: I think (the preceding) is the best way to make sense of what is happening.
25:30: American "way of war" is successful on its own terms ... but it left a vacuum in the case of Iraq: no political structure to co-opt. Very quickly, Iraq spiraled into chaos and the US never re-gained complete control. RUS intends to create political structures amenable to RUS wishes.
26:43: Examples: Kherson and Melitopol: Wherever the RUS moves in, they leave the civilian administration in place. (i.e. life goes on). The Ukrainian flag is allowed to fly.
27:40: The hope is that a vacuum in Ukraine is avoided.
27:50: Additional points!
27:50: 1) Explaining things is not a moral or ethical endorsement ...! Willing to condemn war but ... explaining is a more useful thing than words of condemnation ... of which there have been plenty.
29:11: 2) The RUS plan may not succeed. Clausewitz: "No battle plan ever survives the first encounter with the enemy." (Wikiquote: "Kein Kriegsplan überlebt den ersten Zusammenstoß mit dem Feind.")
29:54: Can't predict the outcome but I think the approach is much more likely to be successful than US style "Shock & Awe".
31:25: That at least is my own perspective!
31:52: As a sequel, RUS did much the same in Czechoslovakia in 1968: RUS was careful to keep the Czechoslovakian government in existence so as to achieve a settlement which was ultimately in the interest of themselves.
32:43: Urge to avoid overblown & vivid accounts in the Western media! Passionate feelings are engaged...!