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Ursprungligen postat av
RepublikenTaiwan
Evergrandes, och de många andra kinesiska fastighetsföretagens, skuldproblem, är tecken på ett mycket större problem:
Väldiga delar av diktaturen Kinas ekonomiska tillväxt under de senaste 20 åren, har bestått av improduktiva investeringar i fastigheter och infrastruktur, som aldrig behövts.
Nu står de fastigheterna tomma, och den infrastrukturen står underutnyttjad. Detta är ren kapitalförstöring, i en aldrig tidigare skådad omfattning.
Niall Ferguson har skrivit en intressant artikel 26SEP som är värd att läsa i sin helhet. Han tar bla upp hur ekonomer har haft fel tidigare i att bedöma Sovjetunionens ekonomi och att de senaste åren tävlat i att gissa när Kinas ekonomi blir större än USAs. Han påminner om den ofattbara storleken av Everglande:
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Evergrande is mainly significant as an illustration of how the Chinese economic model has evolved over the past decades of urbanization on steroids. It is China’s second-largest property developer, with an estimated $355 billion of assets across 1,300 developments. It has around 200,000 employees, and usually hires 3-4 million laborers a year for construction work.
It is also the most-indebted property developer in the world, with on-balance-sheet liabilities equivalent to nearly 2% of China’s annual GDP, and off-balance-sheet obligations equal to another 1%. Among its liabilities are $37 billion in bills and trade payables owed to suppliers and contractors, and an estimated $6 billion in high-yielding wealth management products, which it has sold to more than 80,000 retail investors.
samt om kinas tre röda linjer:
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These specified that a property developer’s ratio of liabilities to assets must be below 70%; its ratio of net debt to equity below 100%; and its ratio of cash to short-term debt at least 100%. Evergrande was on the wrong side of all three lines, but it was in good company. Of the country’s 15 biggest developers, only one is fully compliant with the new rules, according to data in the South China Morning Post.
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Xi’s crackdown on the property developers is just the latest blow he has struck against “capitalism with Chinese characteristics.” First in line were the big tech companies — Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., Tencent Holdings Ltd. and ride-sharing leader Didi Global Inc. Then it was the turn of the for-profit education sector. All of this reflects Xi’s conviction that China needs to move from “fictional growth” to “genuine growth,” and his determination to make the old CCP slogan of “common prosperity” a meaningful antidote to the rampant inequality of the “get rich quick” era. Investors who have ignored this anticapitalist turn in China have only themselves to blame if they have lost money.
Likewise, analysts who continue to predict a Chinese economic takeover of the world have only themselves to blame if they have failed to learn the lessons of the Soviet collapse. Perhaps, to paraphrase Taylor, Xi has learned from the crises of others only how to make a crisis of his own.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-26/niall-ferguson-evergrande-is-a-victim-of-xi-jinping-s-china-crisis
läs även post # 192
(FB) Evergrande I Kina kan gå i konkurs (300 miljarder dollar) om Rogoff och Yangs artikel PEAK CHINA HOUSING
