Kaos i Bolivia också nu!

Bolivia dismissed its October elections as fraudulent. Our research found no reason to suspect fraud.

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There is not any statistical evidence of fraud that we can find — the trends in the preliminary count, the lack of any big jump in support for Morales after the halt, and the size of Morales’s margin all appear legitimate. All in all, the OAS’s statistical analysis and conclusions would appear deeply flawed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...-suspect-fraud

1. At @monkeycageblog we usually analyze the news rather than making it. This - on the Bolivian election - is different. The international consensus is that Morales' government committed election fraud. This post finds no statistical evidence that is true

--- 5. However, these claims are plausibly incorrect. John Curiel and Jack R. Williams analyzed the data, and found _no evidence of fraud._ First, they find a very strong statistical relationship between the data reported before and after the cutoff (see the graph)

--- 6. Second, when they run simulations based on the votes verified before the preliminary count halted, they find that Morales would have won by the necessary 10% margin to secure victory, just as his administration said happened

https://mobile.twitter.com/henryfarr...20181791809536

Good lord. Given the fact the entire Morales government was toppled over accusations of election fraud, the OAS has *a lot* to answer for.

https://mobile.twitter.com/chrislhay...17698692538369

Bolivia’s ‘interim president’ withdraws from upcoming election – one day after poll shows pro-Morales candidate in the lead

Recent polling in Bolivia indicates that candidate Luis Arce – a former economic minister firmly in the pro-Morales camp – could receive more than 40 percent of the vote in the October 18 election. Former president Carlos Mesa came in second in the poll with 26.2 percent, potentially handing victory to Arce in the first round of voting. To avoid a run-off under the country’s election law, a candidate must receive at least 40 percent of the vote and maintain a 10-point lead over the runner-up. Anez, meanwhile, lagged far behind at just over 10 percent, likely explaining her decision to drop out and attempt to consolidate support behind Mesa.