Presidentvalet 2020

While it does not look like former Vice President Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump had widened, Biden may have made his advantage more durable by raising his own popularity; A new CBS News/YouGov poll puts Biden ahead by a 52% to 42% margin among likely voters.

Biden's net favorability rating is up compared to before the conventions.

Biden's net favorability rating climbed 8 points from -3 points last to +5 points among all adults. It's up from -2 points to +3 points among registered voters. That's in-line with the average post-convention poll indicating Biden's net favorability is up by between 5 and 10 points (Biden's jump into positive net favorability ratings is a big development -- if it holds; and If the new polling is any indication, Biden may be locking down the voters who were for him.)

His net favorability rating averaged -1 point before the conventions began. That's below the +6 point net favorability rating that winning candidates have averaged since 1980. Biden's now right around where he needs to be to match the winning candidate average in terms of popularity (Further, his voters are now 5 points more likely (82% to 87%) to say their backing of him is "very strong... decided.")

Indeed, Biden's problem has not been his numbers against Trump. He's over 50% support, and his lead has been sizable and sustained. Biden's biggest issue has been a lack of enthusiasm for his own candidacy. When voters are casting a vote between two candidates they don't like, they're probably less likely to turn out as well as probably more susceptible to last minute shifts in opinion (e.g. 2016). Remember, Trump only won in 2016 because he won the lion share of voters who liked neither candidate.