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teren
Kan någon förklara varför dödstalen minskar (viruset har ju inte blivit mindre farligt)? Spridningen pågår ju fortfarande, om än i lite mindre skala. Men andelen som har antikroppar i Stockholm är 2 av 10, och 1 av 10 i övriga landet. Det finns med andra ord många som fortfarande riskerar smitta, och med så många sittandes på uteserveringar så har jag svårt att förstå hur det inte går upp.
The R0 is below 1. This means that exponential growth is not happening and that the number of people currently infected in the country has shrunk. The last given figures for this was 0.3% currently infected towards the end of May. I believe it is currently around 0.1% to 0.2%.
The last given figures for infection in the country was something like around 6-7%. But there are factors in these numbers that are likely to have given a higher result than what may actually be true. These results are taken from randomized blood-tests from Vårdcentralen. It is also unsure as to whether they have adjusted their results to cover the false-positive rate for these tests, which would mean the actual rate of infection last measured is 5-6%. I don’t know if, or even how, to calculate the potential bias from picking blood samples from primary care. But there is likely some inherent bias involved in doing so that will lead to a higher result. Comparably, randomized blood donor samples released at the same time NOT from Vårdcentralen registered a 5% infection rate in the country. In Stockholm, this was registered at 10% the last I have seen. The same caveats apply as their general population testing.
I believe that the death rate has gone down because this general level of infection has gone down alongside hospitals becoming better at treating patients. If a larger percentage of the population was to become sick, for example, 2%, then this would place a lot of strain on the hospitals. This would then lead to the death rate increasing, because such a high amount of population spread will find its way into the more vulnerable age groups, and because of the hospital strain.
I believe the R0 finds itself below 1, meaning the rate of infection is reducing, due to the fact the coronavirus is seasonal. Immune systems are stronger during this time period. Pollen is nature’s antiviral, and sunlight helps to kill the virus. We are also outside more often where the virus struggles to spread as effectively due to these factors. Things such as reduced rainfall also lower the infectivity of the virus outside, alongside things such as a low AC rate in buildings stopping spread when inside (America is also having their summer, so is the Middle East, but I believe their continued exponential growth is due to this AC use, and due to staying primarily indoors during summer). I also believe that when the summer is over, and these natural protections and mitigation factors are removed, exponential growth may return.
