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Ursprungligen postat av
OUFCompulsive
If you go from 6% to 10% quickly a mass tragedy awaits us. Especially if the 65+ population share catches up to the immunity levels in other age groups. We will break the ten thousand deaths barrier and probably overshoot it by a few thousand. Not to mention the pressure on healthcare systems that resorted to triage and pre-triage to manage the first 4%. The summer is suppressing the R0 currently so this will likely occur towards the end of Summer/beginning of Autumn if such a large shift was to occur.
Going quickly from 10% to 30% immune will completely overload the hospital system and will likely disrupt multiple supply chains. Such a large increase would bring an incredible amount of human suffering.
Nopp, tvärtom så har antalet döda per dag och antalet IVA-fall minskat kraftigt de senaste veckorna,
samtidigt som antalet rapporterade covid-19 fall ökat med ca 15 procent i veckan. Observera att antalet rapporterade covid-19 fall i Sverige
inte är samma sak som antalet nyligen insjuknade. Tvärtom så har andelen aktiva covid-19 fall i befolkningen
minskat ifrån 0,9 procent i april till 0,3 procent i maj, och den minskningen lär fortsätta, så vida vi inte råkar ut för enorma utbrott av klustersmitta den närmaste tiden.