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Ursprungligen postat av
Whyback
Menar du att en på tusen är oroväckande? Inser du hur många i den gruppen som drar på välfärdssjukdomar av metabolisk karaktär? Inser du vidare att de dör inte sällan heller av andra virus, i liknande omfattning? Sedan har du en stor grupp med KOL, som inte tål mycket infektion innan det är ridå.....
This would be the general IFR for healthy individuals. Those in risk-groups (like those with high blood pressure, an ailment that affects over 30% of the Swedish population) will still suffer from a higher IFR than healthy individuals.
It’s worth noting the IFR for the Asian flu pandemic and the Hong Kong flu pandemic is appreciated at 0.1% IFR. The lethality for the second largest epidemic in modern English history (COVID-19 being the largest, albeit a pandemic) was 0.07%.
This means that the IFR for healthy individuals still ranges from the second largest epidemic in England to both the Asian flu and Hong Kong flu combined. That’s worrying. Around 55% of the population is between the ages of 15 and 60.
Assuming the lowest rate IFR of 0.07% and an array of herd immunity thresholds:
50% — 1,800 deaths
60% — 2,170 deaths
70% — 2,530 deaths
82% — 2,960 deaths
Assuming the highest rate IFR of 0.2%:
50% — 5,160 deaths
60% — 6,200 deaths
70% — 7,230 deaths
82% — 8,470 deaths
Yes, I find between 1,800 and 8,470 deaths to be troubling.
Goodnight, I’m logging off now. Stay safe, everybody.