För de spågubbar och gummor, de som frågar forumexperter eller tror att dom själva är experter...
Howard Marks är alltid läsvärd, om det råkar vara i bokform som ”The most important thing” tex men även hans updates genom Oaktree Capital.
Om än känd för att kunna bli långrandig kan ingen slå ner på hans trackrecord och kunskap om investeringar i aktier.
Förra veckans update handlar mycket om Corona-debaklet och om man inte orkar läsa det i sin helhet så läs iaf slutklämmen som är både tänkvärd och applicerbar närsomhelst egentligen.
” What do we know? Not much other than the fact that asset prices are well down, asset holders’ ability to hold coolly is evaporating, and motivated selling is picking up. I’ll sum up my views simply – since there’s nothing sophisticated to say:
“The bottom” is the day before the recovery begins. Thus it’s absolutely impossible to know when the bottom has been reached . . . ever. Oaktree explicitly rejects the notion of waiting for the bottom; we buy when we can access value cheap.
Even though there’s no way to say the bottom is at hand, the conditions that make bargains available certainly are materializing.
Given the price drops and selling we’ve seen so far, I believe this is a good time to invest, although of course it may prove not have been the best time.
No one can argue that you should spend all your money today . . . but equally, no one can argue that you shouldn’t spend any.
The more you want to garner potential gains and don’t mind mark-to-market losses, the more you should invest here. On the other hand, the more you care about protecting against interim markdowns and are able to live with missing opportunities for profit, the less you should invest.
But is there really an argument for not investing at all? In my opinion, the fact that we’re not necessarily at “the bottom” isn’t such an argument.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/weekly.pdf