Stora tråden om Donald Trump [mod]

Hillary’s lead over Trump is now just seven points (47% to 40%), down from 12 points last month.

Trump also faces an enormous gender gap with Clinton. While he gets more male votes than Clinton (45% to 43%), Clinton gets 51% of the female vote to Trump’s 36%.

However, Clinton’s ongoing email scandal makes her vulnerable. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of those following the scandal say Clinton likely compromised national security by using a private email server for government-related work while secretary of state. More than a third of Democrats (38%) believe this.

And 70% say she should drop out of the race if the FBI investigation finds she broke the law. Almost half of Democrats (44%) would want her to do so.

The United States Census Bureau defines White people as those "having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, the Middle East, or North Africa. It includes people who reported "White" or wrote in entries such as Irish, German, Italian, Lebanese, Near Easterner, Arab, or Polish."

The state also has over 715,000 Arab Americans, with large communities in Alameda, Fresno, Imperial, Kern, Orange, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Stanislaus counties. They represent all Arab and Middle Eastern nationalities, the most numerous being of Gaza and West Bank (see Palestinian Americans) followed by those from Syria (see Syrian Americans) and Lebanon (about half- 1.5 out of 3.1 million estimated- (see Lebanese Americans) live in California), Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Arabs have resided in California since the 1920s, most notably in Orange County in the section of Little Arabia (Anaheim, California) and the San Diego area.

About 500,000 Iranian Americans live throughout Southern California, including about 20% of the population of Beverly Hills.[26] Iranian American communities also flourish in the San Fernando Valley, Orange County, San Diego, the Palm Springs area, and the San Joaquin Valley. The majority of Iranian Americans immigrated after the ouster of the pro-U.S. Shah regime of Iran in the late 1970s.

There is also large population of Assyrian/Chaldean descent living in the Central Valley, with large communities in Modesto, Ceres and Turlock, as well as throughout the Central Coast and the California Desert (i.e. the Coachella and Imperial valleys). San Diego has one of the largest concentrations of Chaldean immigrants in the United States.[27]

California is also home to 600,000 Armenian Americans, with many in Glendale north of Los Angeles, as well as a large community in Fresno. As of 1988 California had about 500,000 ethnic Armenians with over half of them living in Greater Los Angeles.[28] In 2006, according to University of California Irvine doctoral student Javid Huseynov, California alone is home to over 100,000 Azerbaijani Americans.[29]

Turkish Americans form moderately-sized communities in both Los Angeles and San Francisco.

For example, when Trump says he is worth $10 billion, which causes his critics to say he is worth far less (but still billions) he is making all of us “think past the sale.” The sale he wants to make is “Remember that Donald Trump is a successful business person managing a vast empire mostly of his own making.” The exact amount of his wealth is irrelevant.

When a car salesperson trained in persuasion asks if you prefer the red Honda Civic or the Blue one, that is a trick called making you “think past the sale” and the idea is to make you engage on the question of color as if you have already decided to buy the car. That is Persuasion 101 and I have seen no one in the media point it out when Trump does it.

Eliana Johnson: Well, one really important thing, Neil, is not to confuse where the bad behavior is coming from. Mr. Trump and his campaign have behaved badly in encouraging and fomenting violence inside their rallies. And, these protesters are behaving badly fomenting and encouraging bad behavior outside the rallies. The fact that there are protesters that are behaving badly does not dissolve the Trump campaign or Mr. Trump for what he’s done.

It’s only one poll—its margin of error is 4.2 percent; usual caveats apply—but it offers some particularly bad news for Kasich. The pollsters found that 17 percent of GOP voters said they had never heard of the Ohio governor, compared with 2 percent who said the same thing of Cruz and the 0 percent for Trump.

Kasich is running out of time to introduce himself to Oregon voters. The state primary is conducted entirely by mail, meaning many voters will return their ballots well in advance of the May 17 deadline. And Kasich didn’t help his case, either, when he missed a deadline to have his name listed on an informational flier the state sends out to voters.

To be fair, Oregon isn’t one of the most important contests of the 10 remaining on the GOP primary calendar. State Republicans will hand out their 28 delegates proportionally