Ukraina valde Ryssland före EU - stora protester som följd, länkar i inlägg2

More ominous is the arrival of the far-right paramilitary nationalist group UNA-UNSO, which has an undercurrent of anti-Semitic and anti-gay attitudes. As Loiko reported:
“Igor Mazur, a member of UNA-UNSO’s Political Council, said in an interview that his organization had about 400 men involved in the protest movement, including some with combat experience in places such as Chechnya and the Abkhazia region of Georgia. He said the group wanted to see Ukraine strong enough to dominate Eastern Europe, but that Jews had nothing to fear from it. He estimated that 90% of Ukraine’s bankers were Jewish, ‘but have you seen a single bank looted and pillaged?’
“ ‘Our problems are the criminal authoritarian regime of Yanukovich and the expansion of Russia, which wants to see Ukraine split,’ he said. He also said in the interview that ‘there is no place for homosexuals in the country we want to build.’ ”

While the gutting of the anti-protest laws and the prime minister’s resignation might be a victory for the protest movement, it’s unclear whether the changes will ease tensions, especially since the protests seem now to be about more than protest laws and trade and economic pacts.
Protester Mikhail Borets, a 33-year-old computer engineer, told Loiko that UNA-UNSO showed up for the funeral of a protester killed by a sniper. “We were really scared when we saw all those paramilitary guys in masks and camouflage filing outside the cafe where we were, like in a Nazi parade with their red, white and black flags,” he said. “They were shouting, ‘Glory to the nation, death to enemies!’ and ‘Ukraine is above all!’ ” Borets said. “I don't want it to be above all. This is not something this protest should have been about.”
The presence of a nationalist group that talks of wanting to dominate Eastern Europe and making Ukraine for Ukrainians is an unwelcome turn.

Ukraine’s industry and agriculture remains dependent on supplying Russia. Oil supply will long be an umbilical cord. Even if the country moved its centre of gravity westward, these things would remain true.

Arts and culture have long had a significant Russian orientation. A number of Ukrainians have written in Russian and are considered by Russia to be among the best — Nikolai Gogol, the playwright, who satirised political corruption in the Russian empire, Mikhail Bulgakov, the novelist and author of The Master and Margarita, an enduring bestseller, and Anna Akhmatova, the greatest female poet in Europe, among others.

Fifty percent of the population of Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, speaks Russian at home although the Russian ethnic group is only around 13 percent. In Ukraine, as a whole, it is 17 percent. Vladimir Putin does not expect Ukraine to lose its present day independence but he would like history to be recognised. The closeness is far more than the UK and France or Spain and Italy. It is more like Germany and Austria or Sweden and Norway.

From Moscow’s perspective, it makes economic sense if Ukraine furthers its economic links by joining the new customs union that embraces many ex-Soviet states. It will also give Ukraine a powerful voice again in Moscow. However, this does not mean that Ukraine cannot get closer to Europe but it must take it a step at a time as must Turkey. It is less economically developed than Turkey and is politically less democratic. There is no good reason, other than EU realpolitik, why Ukraine should jump over Turkey in the queue.

Ilkiv says that a peaceful protest against President Yanukovych's U-turn was violently broken up by Ukraine's notorious Berkut special police on November 30, and that this was the catalyst for broader protests. People weren't just sick of the excesses of the Berkut or Yanukovych's shift towards Moscow — they were angry at Yanukovych for creating a centralized system that allowed for extreme corruption, nepotism, and intimidation. When the government began sending text messages to protesters taking part in "violent demonstrations," Yanukovych's government began to look positively Orwellian.

For many Russians, the history of Ukraine and Russia are intrinsically intertwined, and it's hard to imagine Russia President Vladimir Putin's grand plans for a Eurasian Union working if Ukraine joined the E.U. The implications are huge.

"The emergence of a democratic independent Ukraine transforms the geo-strategic landscape in Central Europe," F. Stephen Larrabee, the Distinguished Chair in European Security at the RAND Institute wrote in an email to Business Insider, "Without Ukraine Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. However, if Russia were to regain control over Ukraine with its 46 million people, major resources and access to the Black Sea, Russia would automatically regain the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state."

Additionally, a number of key gas pipelines from Russia to Western Europe run through Ukraine. In pure economic terms, a shift to Russia would likely change the dynamics of how Western Europe is powered.

Although Kiev is the epicenter of the demonstrations calling for President Viktor Yanukovych to step down, Lviv is a buzzing entrepreneurial engine of support.

This western city 300 miles (480 kilometers) from Kiev, near the border with Poland, is the heartland of Ukrainian nationalism, where an overwhelming majority of the people resent Russia's former occupation and current strong influence. Support for the pro-Russian Yanukovych is almost non-existent and residents in this city of 730,000 want their future clearly tied to Europe.

"This is a country that is killing the middle class, of which I consider myself a part," said Andrey Kit, owner of an agricultural business.

Employers in Lviv, known for its thriving small-business community, have tacitly encouraged their employees to take part in the protests. Kvyatkovska, who makes a living as a tapestry restorer in a local museum, said despite working in a government institution, her boss was in favor of her going.

"At work there's an unspoken agreement - they sign a paper and say 'Go, go!'" she said.---

Lviv's tilt toward Europe has long roots. Its quiet cobblestone streets and snow-capped Belle Epoque buildings make it hard to conceive that it was Soviet territory until recently. For centuries, Lviv traded hands between Poland and the Austrian Empire until the Soviet occupation.

Although the economy of western Ukraine is poorer than the Russian-speaking east, home to Ukraine's major industries, Lviv's people regard themselves as more cultured than easterners. The city is especially proud of its burgeoning small-business sector, from chic cafes to respected tech companies.

People traveling to the capital gather at a cafe downtown that serves as a distribution site for donations and a bus depot for demonstrators.

"Every day the demand for things people can use for defense - helmets, shin pads, elbow pads - is growing," said organizer Mikhail Senko. "People fear more and more for their safety."

He said the site sent 537 protesters in buses to Kiev on Saturday and collected hundreds of donations.

During the 14th century, Poland and Lithuania fought wars against the Mongol invaders, and eventually most of Ukraine passed to the rule of Poland and Lithuania. More particularly, the lands of Volynia in the north and north-west passed to the rule of Lithuanian princes, while the south-west passed to the control of Poland (Galicia) and Hungary (Zakarpattya). Also the Genoese founded some colonies in Crimean coasts until Ottoman conquest in 1470s.

Most of Ukraine bordered parts of Lithuania, and some say that the name, "Ukraine" comes from the local word for "border," although the name "Ukraine" was also used centuries earlier. Lithuania took control of the state of Volynia in northern and northwestern Ukraine, including the region around Kiev (Rus'), and the rulers of Lithuania then adopted the title of ruler of Rus'. Poland took control of the region of Galicia. Following the union between Poland and Lithuania, Poles, Germans, Lithuanians and Jews migrated to the region.

Three regional legislative bodies, namely Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil and Poltava have banned the Party of Regions and the Communist party — two parties that comprise the ruling coalition. President Yanukovich and Prime Minister Azarov are currently at the head of Party of Regions, which forms a parliamentary majority with its loyal ally — the Communist party.

In a surprising twist Ukrainian football ultras emerged as an orderly force guarding peaceful protesters against the brutality of police and plainclothes thugs locally known as 'titushki'. Several regional football fan clubs voiced their open support for the protest on their websites and social network groups.

A video showing several men dressed up in full combat gear refusing to explain who they are has stirred curiosity in Ukraine. These men are not wearing any known police or army insignia, which has led to rumours swirling about their identity.

The video was filmed Saturday evening in the southern city of Nikolaev by a journalist from a local news site called Nikvesti. In the video, local journalists and activists try to talk to the men, who are decked out in army fatigues, body protection, tactical vests, combat helmets, and ski masks. They repeatedly evade questions as to who they are and why they aren’t wearing insignia – which is against the law – saying only that they “were called to patrol to ensure civil order”, and “came here to protect the eternal flame to Soviet heroes” (a monument in the city). They then walk away, refusing to answer any more questions. As they’re departing, a badge reading “CCO” is clearly visible on one of the men’s backs. (Meanwhile, that same evening, an altercation took place between police and opposition members trying to enter the city’s regional administration building, reportedly to check if “hired thugs” were hiding out there.)

The news site’s theory is that the men in the video belong to the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (for which the acronym is CCO), a division of the armed forces that has, until recently, never been seen on the streets. In 2011, the army announced plans to create such a force though little else was said about it until this past September. When questioned as to whether this force would ever be created, Ukraine’s defence minister remained vague, saying only that the plans had not been cancelled.

This video has been reposted all over Ukrainian blogs and social media, often accompanied by claims that it proves that Russian special forces are active in quashing protests in Ukraine.

If anyone is promoting hatred it is the government. My friend Josef Zissels, chairman of the Association of Jewish Organizations and Communities of Ukraine, and vice president of the World Jewish Congress, wrote a few days ago that the website of Berkut, the special police force (and a final line of defense for the powers that be) had been “flooded with anti-Semitic materials that allege that the Jews are to blame for organizing at Maidan,” the central square, which has become synonymous with the protests.

Mr. Zissels wrote: “This is completely absurd, but those who are armed with batons and shields, now facing the protesters, believe this. They are brainwashed into believing that the Maidan is a Jewish project, and thus there is no need to take pity on anyone — you can beat them all.”

Beat them all. The police have beaten women and children, and even priests trying to intervene to stop the bloodshed. Berkut not only beats; it maims, tortures and kills. Its members like to pounce on individuals who have gotten separated from the crowd of protesters. Some have even posed for the cameras, their boots on the heads of victims lying on the ground. They proudly upload these photos and videos to their personal pages at social networking sites.---

Yuri Andrukhovych is a poet, essayist, translator and the author of the novels “Perverzion” and “The Moscoviad.”

In the more immediate future, though, negotiations are turning on the question of a proposed amnesty law to free hundreds arrested in connection with the protests in recent weeks. Even pro-government protesters in front of the parliament building said they believed many of those in detention were basically innocent.

In the words of one activist, these people have been taken hostage and are being used as bargaining chips in negotiations. Mr Yanukovych’s proposal, as outlined by the justice minister, Olena Lukash, on January 27th, is that the amnesty should take effect only once all occupied public buildings and roads have been cleared of protesters. It only takes one look at the five-metre-high barricades (now equipped to resist tanks, according to one man who was at work reinforcing one by welding fence-posts together) to know that that is not something the protesters will accept.

Ex-president Leonid Kravchuk warns the country is on brink of 'civil war'
Ukraine's first post-independence president has warned the country is on the brink of "civil war" as its parliament debates an amnesty for protesters.
Leonid Kravchuk, who was president from 1991 to 1994, opened the debate in parliament by urging everyone involved to "act with the greatest responsibility" to resolve the continuing crisis.
"All the world acknowledges and Ukraine acknowledges that the state is on the verge of civil war," he said.
"There are parallel authorities in the country and there is a de-facto uprising.
"It is a revolution. It is a dramatic situation in which we must act with the greatest responsibility.

By propping up Yanukovych and perpetuating the status quo, Moscow involuntarily put a set of events in motion that have left it facing a crisis with three unpleasant consequences for Russian interests.

First, Ukraine is now radicalized, unstable and in real danger of breaking apart. An angry and disillusioned society has outgrown its leaders and is desperately searching for new ones. Second, Russia's strategic goal of keeping Ukraine in a tighter Russian embrace is clear to large sections of Ukrainian society and can no longer be packaged as "brotherly assistance." Third, Moscow is experiencing the alarming precedent of spontaneous, homegrown "people power" that is crippling a post-Soviet government in a country with which Moscow feels a deep affinity.

If the aftereffects of 2004 reinforced paranoia about Western forces bent on undermining Russia and its interests, these latest events have the potential to trigger far stronger intolerance of dissent within Russia itself.

How could Moscow have miscalculated on such a scale?

The difficulty of separating perception from reality creates a poor basis on which to build strategic policymaking. Russia's leaders view Ukraine through the emotional prism of shared history, culture and experience spanning several centuries. They see it as a territory that achieved independence in 1991 only because of a historical aberration. They have never truly accepted Ukraine's existence as an independent and sustainable country with its own identity. In Putin's words, Ukrainians and Russians are "one people." He has described Ukraine as a state rather than a country. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's leaders, by default, have thought of Ukraine as land that was torn away from them by accident, unable to exist without a close alliance with Russia.

Perhaps largely because of these blinders, Russian policy makers have failed to grasp the reality of Ukraine, particularly the rapid development of civil society and its growing sense of independent political identity. Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma's mantra that "Ukraine is not Russia" was part of a careful and sustained nation-building exercise that increasingly differentiated Ukraine from Russia, and it has led many Ukrainians to see more clearly that Ukraine's geography, history and traditions give it a basis for a different and more promising type of political development compared to Russia.

Moscow urgently needs to change its strategy to avoid further escalating tensions in Ukraine and, together with the U.S. and EU, encourage a political process that can hold the country together. To do so, it must put aside emotions and paranoia and analyze the real causes of the revolutionary processes sweeping the country.

John Lough is a vice president with BGR Gabara Limited, a London-based international communications consultancy and an associate fellow with the Russia & Eurasia Program at Chatham House.