Summer 2025 Weather Predictions for Europe: Early Forecasts Indicate a Dynamic Season
• Early seasonal weather models predict a dynamic summer for Europe in 2025, starting with increased precipitation and transitioning to drier conditions with a heightened risk of heatwaves in the middle and later parts of the season.
• The Spring-Summer transition (April-June) is forecast to feature a low-pressure system over western and northwestern Europe, bringing moisture from the Mediterranean and above-normal precipitation to much of the continent, while southeastern Europe experiences drier conditions.
• The ECMWF model, considered statistically reliable for long-range forecasting, projects a low-pressure area over the North Atlantic potentially extending into northwestern Europe during June, leading to warmer temperatures and increased moisture over central Europe.
• July's forecast shows a high-pressure system over central and northern Europe, potentially causing a blocking pattern that results in above-normal temperatures across much of the continent and drier conditions, particularly in central Europe, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves.
• August's forecast indicates a broad high-pressure zone over north-central and northern Europe, maintaining warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier conditions across central Europe, with a potential for heatwaves, while a low-pressure area to the east may limit the extent of the heat.
• The Canadian CANSIPS model corroborates these findings, predicting a high-pressure anomaly over north-central and northwestern Europe, leading to above-normal temperatures and dry conditions across much of the continent, with increased rainfall potentially in the south-central regions and the Mediterranean.
• While these initial forecasts suggest a drier and hotter summer for central and northern Europe with a higher risk of heatwaves, it's crucial to remember that these are early predictions, and updates will be provided as more data becomes available.
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/first-look-summer-2025-predictions-forecast-europe-fa/