Putin beordrar styrkor att gå in i Ukraina - INVASION NU (2022-02-24)

However, in the long term, they certainly won’t be able to compete even with Europe, if the EU countries finally give in. It’s a complete projection that the Russian military industry would collapse, simply in 1-2 years, the stored ex-Soviet equipment will run out, i.e., the volume will decrease. But this is not a collapse. This is the “gray” picture.

There is no terrible Russian threat within 3-4 years, even if by some miracle they don’t have to keep a significant part of their army in Ukraine because even if there is a ceasefire, and 90-plus percent is not needed in Ukraine, like today, they still won’t be able to withdraw a significant part of their forces from there either. The bigger the slice they cut out of Ukraine, the longer the demarcation line, the more soldiers they need to hold it.

But there is no Russian collapse, neither military-industrial, nor economic, nor social. They can keep up this pace for years to come. That is, they are enough for Ukraine, not for Europe.