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Ursprungligen postat av
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Nearly two million mother-father-offspring family units were included. Overall, the frequency of misattributed paternity was estimated at 1.7% in both models. Misattributed paternity was more common among parents with low educational levels, and has decreased over time to a current 1%.
Results
A total of 1.95 million family units were included in the analyses. The blood group distribution in the full study population was 45% A, 5% AB, 12% B and 38% O. The cohort mainly consisted of offspring born between 1950 and 1990. Of all parents, 89% were born in Sweden and of the offspring, 97% were born in Sweden.
The main analyses resulted in estimates of the frequency of misattributed paternity that were very similar between the Poisson, 1.7% (95% confidence interval, 1.6–1.7%) and Bayesian models, 1.7% (95% credibility interval, 1.6–1.7%) (Fig. 1a). In a sensitivity analysis, to address the issue of non-independent samples, we restricted the cohort to the first child born in every family unit. The estimates were similar and again consistent between the Poisson and Bayesian models, 1.8 (95% confidence interval, 1.7–1.9%) and 1.8 (95% credibility interval, 1.7–1.8%). When the analyses using the Bayesian model were restricted to offspring born before in vitro fertilization, first introduced in Sweden in 1983, it yielded a slightly higher estimate, 2.0 (95% credibility interval, 1.9—2.0%). In turn, this was consistent with a general decline in the occurrence of misattributed paternity over time, from 3.2% (95% credibility interval, 2.7–3.8%) for children born in the 1930s to 0.9% (95% credibility interval, 0.7–1.1%) for children born in the 2010s (Fig. 1b). The misattributed paternity frequency was highest among those with the lowest educational level for both the mother and father, 2.0% (95% credibility interval, 1.8–2.1%) and 1.7% (95% credibility interval, 1.5–1.8%), respectively, but with a trend towards higher estimates for mothers with postgraduate education 1.1% (95% credibility interval, 0.6–1.8%) (Fig. 1c). For the analysis regarding the age of father and mother, there was a u-shaped association with higher estimated rates for younger and older age (Supporting Information Fig. S2). For geographical regions, the were small or no associations between place of birth and estimated rates for population-dense or non-dense regions with a few exceptions (Supporting Information Fig. S3).