Putin beordrar styrkor att gå in i Ukraina - INVASION NU (2022-02-24)

1A) Putin is rumored to be very paranoid given the last few years of his rule, always thinking the enemy is just around the corner. This effectively puts him on house arrest in Russia, he can never trust another country enough to visit.

1B) This warrant gives the US and Europe an excellent justification for keeping economic sanctions on Russia permanently. Remember how Zelenskyy said that Putin wouldn't be the one negotiating the end to this war? A logical conclusion would be that the sanctions would only be lifted through negotiation of reparations and concessions after Putin is removed from power. Even if Russia withdrew entirely, the sanctions would remain, and Putin would be draining the wealth of every oligarch while he continues to sit on the throne - a lot of people stand to lose a lot of money, and will not find this acceptable. They will back some sort of replacement, and given Russia's history, Putin will not survive. More reason to distrust everyone around him.

2) If Putin can be charged with war crimes, who else can? There are a lot of people in positions of power in Russia that know they are equally guilty, and are more likely to be charged with war crimes as the war drags on. Prighozin, Shoigu, Gerasimov, and all of the military officials who ran this war. There will be many witnesses and documents that can prove how the leadership targeted civilian centers to try to win the war and resorted to abhorrent tactics to defeat Ukrainian morale, and those people are equally cornered.

3) This war crime charge erodes the Kremlin's legitimacy to their own people. There is going to be a lot less public support for the war now that the people can't hide behind ignorance of the methods and goals used to subvert Ukraine. Russians do not like to support losing causes, and they definitely won't want to publicly support a war that makes them look like monsters instead of victims. Enlistment will further falter and another wave of mobilization will not be well-received by the population.

So yes, Putin is in deep trouble with this war crime charge. It corners him into Russia, where he now can't trust his inner circle, and will very quickly lose legitimacy with his remaining supporters. As much as Putin didn't want to be the next Gaddafi, he now has to be mindful that he could be the next Milosevic, and he can never escape that as long as he's still alive. This will get ugly.

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