UK kommer nog tvingas avstå från att lyfta restriktionerna den 21 juni. Prognoserna över utvecklingen blir allt mörkare nu när Delta-varianten har tagit över. Virusets ökade farlighet i kombination med ökad smittsamhet skulle redan i slutet av juli kunna leda till lika den dödligaste vågen hittills trots att så många är vaccinerade.
Europa kan komma att drabbas av rena katastrofen i sommar och ändå så fortsätter man tillåta resor och lättar på restriktioner. Visst.., Det är redan försent att stoppa varianten, men ju fler man hinner vaccinera desto mer kan man begränsa smittspridningen.
Citat:
Epidemiologists are still wrestling with how transmissible the India variant of concern is. Public Health England believes it is at least as transmissible as the Kent variant, but preliminary work based on genome sequencing in India raises the prospect of it spreading up to 60% more easily.
To get some idea of what a faster-spreading variant could mean for the months ahead, modelling teams that feed into Sage worked up different scenarios. Assuming the vaccines hold up, more people could be hospitalised than in the first wave – putting the NHS at risk – if the variant is much more than 30% more transmissible, University of Warwick models show. At 40% more transmissible, hospitalisations could reach 6,000 per day, far above the peak of the second wave, and 10,000 per day if the variant is 50% more transmissible.
Citat:
A third wave of the coronavirus will drive people into hospital despite the mass vaccination programme. While the vast majority of older and more vulnerable people have been inoculated, the vaccines are not 100% protective, and do not work in everyone. As a result, scientific advisers expect many of those hospitalised in the third wave to be vaccinated, just not well protected from their shots.
Millions more have not yet been called for their jabs. Among those will be people unaware they are clinically vulnerable. And so more deaths will duly follow. Modelling from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, seen by Sage on 5 May, found that a 50% more transmissible variant could trigger a third wave with deaths peaking at 1,000 per day in late July. We have not seen those kinds of numbers since February.
Deaths are not all that matters. The decision to vaccinate older people first was based on saving lives and preventing the collapse of the NHS. The trade-off is more infections in younger, healthy people, and while they are much less likely to die from the disease they are at real risk of long Covid, in which patients continue to suffer from fatigue, brain fog and other debilitating symptoms long after they have overcome the virus itself.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/14/india-covid-variant-could-lead-to-third-wave-uk
