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Herd immunity by infection is not an option
Herd immunity by infection is not an option
/.../Additionally, given that seroprevalence is under 20% in most countries (6), these data suggest that without strict control measures, the epidemic would continue to accelerate for many months ahead, with an unacceptably high cost. The deaths that would accrue in pursuit of naturally acquired herd immunity would be catastrophic. Manaus has a particularly young population. In populations with a higher proportion of older people, the overall infection fatality rates would be higher, between 0.46% and 0.72% as seen in São Paulo (1). Applying age-specific infection fatality rates estimated from the Manaus data, a 76% attack rate would mean 350,000, 386,000, and 1.58 million deaths in the United Kingdom, France, and the United States, respectively.https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6526/230
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What the findings of Buss et al. definitively show is that pursuing herd immunity through naturally acquired infection is not a strategy that can be considered. Achieving herd immunity through infection will be very costly in terms of mortality and morbidity, with little guarantee of success. Although the duration and effectiveness of immunity in reducing transmission with vaccination is unclear, experience across several infectious diseases suggests that immunity can be boosted safely through vaccination, if required. Even a mitigation strategy whereby the virus is allowed to spread through the population with the objective of keeping admissions just below health care capacity, as is done for influenza virus, is clearly misguided for SARS-CoV-2. Like SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, this virus is optimally addressed with an aggressive suppression strategy (15). Governments need to focus on more precise NPIs, robust test/trace/isolate systems, border control measures, mass testing, better treatments, and development and delivery of vaccines (15). This is the most sustainable path for countries out of this pandemic.
Ja då är det glasklart att platta kurvan för sjukvården inte är en evidensbaserad metod. Hoppas den här texten läses av dem på SVT som ska intervjua FoHM och dess grundare av den svenska strategin på söndag.
Att FoHM nu har ändrat sig gällande flockimmunitet och vill ligga närmare de andra länderna i EU, ska ju inte ignoreras utan kräver svar i form av erkännande av den svenska strategin. De måste hållas ansvariga även om dem nu kallar strategin något helt annat. För det är dess utfall av strategin man ser nu.
