Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av
OUFCompulsive
Iceland never suffered hospital strain, deliberately kept the infection away from older demographics, and has such a small population that testing the entirety of it to ensure the virus is kept from the vulnerable demographic is feasible. It’s not representative of wide societal spread and more a confirmation of the IFR for younger demographics.
Just looking at Iceland, we could surmise that IFR is not 0.3%, but in fact quite a bit higher.
Right now, Iceland has registrered 5346 cases, the death toll stands at 26.
That means CFR is in fact 0,49%.
Iceland has one major advantage; it is the home of deCODE Genetics, one of the worlds leading RT-PCR testing labs.
This lab alone has the resources to test the entire population of Iceland within a reasonable timeframe. and has done so.
So far, Iceland has performed 1.13 tests for each of it's inhabitants, with a total of ca. 387 000 tests performed.
Everyone on Iceland obviously haven't been tested, and many have taken more than one test, but it's still an impressive number.
Most of this testing was done early on in the pandemic, during the spring.
The relatively low spread of the virus on Iceland during the summer and fall means there's less need for widespread testing these days.
What this really means, is that Iceland has probably caught just about every case of infection through widepread testing.
Ultimately meaning IFR is most likely very close to CFR.
So even in Iceland, where they've been quite successful in avoiding deaths, compared to most other countries in the world, IFR is most likely close to 0.5%.
That IFR would somehow be lower than that on a global scale, is wishful thinking.
Current estimates of global IFR, not withstanding baseless reports filled with errors, are somewhere in the 0.6-1.0% range.
In Sweden, where so many people have died unessesarily, IFR is probably much higher than the global estimates, I'd think closer to 1.0-1.5%, at least. At the same time, Swedens lack of testing makes it really hard to make heads or tails of the numbers.