Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av
aw
140 döda per dag motsvarar 326,000 nya smittade per vecka, med ett IFR på 0.3 procent.
Givevis är mörkertalet stort, men de senaste tre veckorna har antalet rapporterade fall varit:
v45: 24,756
v46: 32,705
v47: 30,975
och andelen smittade av de provtagna:
v45: 10,9 %
v46: 12,9 %
v47: 11,9 %
Det ser alltså ut som att antalet fall toppade v46.
Det skulle i sin tur innebära att antalet dödsfall borde toppa någon gång mellan 23-29 november. Det vill säga nu.
Om dödsfallen följde samma exponentiella utveckling som de gjorde i början av november så skulle det nog vara rimligt. Men det ser ju inte ut som att det blir så.
326,000 infections a week would lead to thousands of deaths at a minimum. The hospitals would collapse almost immediately about a week and a half after such a surge. There is no protecting vulnerable populations at such a massive societal spread. Most likely the death toll would stretch into 10,000+ just from that week alone.
38.5% of the population is above the age of 50 and considered vulnerable. The IFR for this segment is not 0.3%. 25% is above the age of 60 and considered very vulnerable. The IFR for this segment is definitely not 0.3%.
Following your mathematics 15,600,000 people have already been infected in Sweden. An IFR of 0.3% would yield 978 deaths, not 140.
