Varsågoda, här kommer summary av Spaniens rapport, Google-översatt från spanska.
Lite kommentarer:
1) Spanien har för det första enbart mätt IgG antikroppar i den här preliminära studien, och inte mätt även IgM som man bör. IgG antikroppar har stor risk för falsk negativ. Det tar lång tid att utveckla IgG, och man vet inte om de med milda eller inga symptom ens utvecklar ett mätbart IgG värde. Förlåt, men hur kan man göra en världsnyhet av det här, utan att inkludera den här extremt väsentliga information?
2) Det är dessutom ett snabbtest, inte ett laboratorietest.
3) Precis som jag misstänkte och har påtalat idag. Spaniens åldersstruktur av smittade är raka motsatsen till det man vill ha, med minst antal fall bland barn och unga, och stigande antal fall med stigande ålder. Det är bara att hoppas, för Spaniens del, att det är en konsekvens av mätfel typ att unga inte har mätbara IgG.
”Executive Summary
ENE-Covid19 is a extensive longitudinal sero-epidemiological, population-based study, whose objectives are to estimate the prevalence of SARS-Cov2 infection by determining antibodies against the virus in Spain and evaluating its temporal evolution.
The results presented today, for the first round refer to the reading of the IgG band of the rapid test, since we only have partial results of the analysis by immunoassay.
In the first round of ENE-Covid19 (April 27 to May 11) 60983 participants in the national sample and 3234 in the island-specific study have been recruited , not included in this report. The participation rate among eligible individuals has been 62.3%, and considering only the people who have been contacted reaches the 74.7%.
The estimated prevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS-Cov2 in Spain is 5.0% ( 95% CI: 4.7% - 5.4%), being very similar in men and women (5.0% (95% CI: 4.6% -5.4%) versus 5.1% (95% CI: 4.7%). In relation to age, the prevalence is lower in babies, children and young people, remaining quite stable in older age groups.
The proportion of positives is higher in residents of large cities (> 100,000 inhabitants) 6.4% ( 95% CI: 5.8-7.1).
Regarding diagnosis or COVID19 by PCR, the 87% of the participants who report having had a PCR + present IgG antibodies. In possible suspected cases, the prevalence increases with the number of symptoms and it is particularly high in people who report anosmia (43%). Finally a 2.5% of the participants who did not report any symptoms presented IgG antibodies.
Even if the national prevalence is 5% expected, a marked geographic variability in the prevalence of antibodies. Analyzing the Autonomous Communities and autonomous cities as a whole: while Ceuta, Murcia, Melilla, Asturias and the Canary Islands have prevalences of less than 2%, the Communities of Castilla-La Mancha and Madrid exceed 10%. In the provincial maps, the central grouping of provinces with prevalences equal to or close to 10% in the Madrid area stands out.
The map of possible suspected cases COVID19 ( people with 3 or more symptoms or with sudden loss of smell) also shows this central aggregation, with prevalences close to 20%, although equally high values are also observed in some other provinces. Taking into account the possible suspected cases of COVID19 with the definition used in this study, we observed a reduction in its prevalence between the first and second week.
These results are to be considered provisional. since they do not have the information that will provide the determination of IgG anti SARS-CoV2 antibodies measured by immunoassay. Furthermore, in successive waves it will be possible to know the evolution of the prevalence and the changes observed over time in the participants of this large dynamic cohort.
This study is the result of the effort of many professionals and the trust and generosity of more than
60,000 participants who have understood the interest of providing time, information and samples to learn about the situation of the COVID19 epidemic in our country.”
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Senast redigerad av aw 2020-05-14 kl. 20:38.