“Herd immunity is not a valid exit strategy”.
This study looks at antibody prevalence in the Netherlands, finding a 2.7% infection rate concluding on the 15th of April. Their testing seems relatively bulletproof in terms of false-positives and negatives.
Their antibody testing has a hit-rate of 100% after 10-13 days of symptom onset, meaning we can see the true range of deaths for 2.7% anywhere from 6-9 days after this test. The majority of deaths will therefor have occurred by April 24th.
Netherlands population:
17,400,000
Total official deaths on April 24th:
4,289 deaths
4,289 / 469800 (17,400,000 x 0.027) = 0.91% IFR.
This is lower than reported in New York City and Lombardy, but can be explained by the highest prevalence being amongst the youngest population age-range (almost double the number of infected). This IFR will likely climb as a larger share of 60+ become infected.
Further antibody testing evidence that the IFR is around 1% and within my 0.8% to 1.2% estimations.
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-25862/v1
