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I appreciate your search for science here and what you have been posting so far, its been a lot of great content around CFR estimation.
Just curious; you say 23.8 days until death on average. Do you also know the average time to hospital and ICU admission respectively?
Shouldn’t the hospitalisation and ICU numbers from easter have been showing up in the statistics by now? Aren’t those leading numbers in the number of deaths we can expect in 1-2 weeks from now?
Yes, this is from Imperial College’s 18.8 days from symptom onset estimate and the five days from infection to symptom onset median. I don’t know the average time from symptom onset to hospitalization, but the ICU registry for Sweden reports an average of 10.9 days from symptom onset to laying in intensive care.
Yes, I believe we can see some deceleration in Stockholm and some acceleration in the rest of the country as Easter should now be reflected there. Potentially with some acceleration around the country to reflect the sunshine that came after this, leading to people easing their personal social distancing restrictions. I think a majority of deaths happen outside of intensive care wards, sadly. I haven’t seen any official statistics regarding in hospital/intensive care/at home/elderly homes, but I’ve been counting how many patients go in/out of the intensive care wards.
For example, we have an increase of around ten patients in IVA care today but forty patients more in our overall count. This leaves us with 30 potential deaths — assuming the 80% survival rate still holds (which I doubt), that would be 6 deaths. I would appraise it at 6-20, personally.
To make things easy, let’s predict 100 people died today. That would make the intensive care share at a lowest 6/100 and highest 20/100. The share of deaths from elderly homes has been touted as 30%, so we can assume 30/100 of deaths will come from elderly homes. This leaves us with 36/100 to 56/100 deaths accounted for. Then the big question is how much of those remaining deaths is represented through hospitals? Considering that swab-testing before death is likely to occur in hospitals, my guess is that hospitals hold a majority share. The second question is how many deaths are being missed due to not having a positive swab test?
The second question would be the most important in knowing whether hospitals/ICU wards would lead the majority of deaths or not, but I believe they’ll lead at least half of the official totals.
