Dödligt virus från Kina orsakar panik (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19)

In conclusion, our estimates of the risk for death from COVID-19 in China as of February 11, 2020, were as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and as low as ≈1% in the less severely affected areas in China.

The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system

For comparison, the crude CFR has been estimated at 0.9% in Beijing (25), 1.4% among 1,099 patients across China (26), and 4.3% in a meta-analysis among 50,466 hospitalized patients

caution will be needed when comparing our estimates with other CFR estimates
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Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020
Abstract

Since December 2019, when the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control.

Cdc

Det finns flera studier och uppskattningar. Dödligheten beror på flera omständigheter som tillgång till kvalificerad sjukvård och hur många asymtomatiska bärare som studier räknar med. 0,7% till strax över 1% är nog rimligt antagande av dödligheten.


The Lancet

sciencenews.org

This data is unique, because due to the small self-contained population of a stranded cruise ship. Riou et al build a model from a series of assumptions about how the disease progresses. The assumptions are not wild guesses, they are based on measures made by the Chinese public health agency plus what we know from previous epidemics. Interestingly, they also make use of data from infections of passengers on a cruise ship. They put their models together and estimated a total fatality rate of about 1.6 per cent. That means they estimate that 1.6 per cent of the people infected will die, on average.

study, Riou et al

A panel of experts at the University of California, San Francisco, predicted that between 40 and 70% of Americans could become infected within the next 18 months, one internist attending the panel said.
Assuming a 1% mortality rate from the coronavirus, and 50% of the US population becoming infected, that means about 1.5 million Americans could die — that's if no drug is found effective and made available.

businessinsider

Källa:

CDC, Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020, 18 mars 2020, https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article

sciencenews.org, Cruise ship outbreak helps pin down how deadly the new coronavirus is, 12 mars 2020, https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...hip-death-rate

The Lancet, Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection, 12 mars 2020, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...195-X/fulltext

Granta, How many people are going to die from COVID-19?, 12 mars 2020, https://granta.com/how-many-people-a...from-covid-19/

businessinsider, Multiple experts say up to 70% of Americans could be infected with the coronavirus and 1 million could die if no treatment is found — so people over 60 should 'stay home unless it's critical', 13 mars 2020, https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...20-3?r=US&IR=T