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Ursprungligen postat av
Stabskapten
Det är svårt att tolka "implementera Minskavtalet" som något annat än att separatisterna ska gå tillbaka till de frontlinjer som gällde enligt det avtalet - det vill säga ge upp all terräng de tagit under offensiven. Kommer Putin att försöka köra ned en sådan katastrofuppgörelse i halsen på separatisterna?
Inte omöjligt. Ett stort problem med hela diskussionen i väst kring Putin är att den är så oerhört förvriden att även de som är motståndare till den organiserade kampanjen mot honom trots det tar till sig och inkorporerar vissa av propagandisternas lögner. Det krävs verkligen ett kallt huvud för att inte påverkas av propagandan. Jag anser att två artiklar bör läsas för att åtminstone förstå lite mer kring Putin. En neutral, skriven av Israel Shamir, och en negativ, skriven ur ett nyryskt perspektiv, snarare än ett ryskt.
Israel Shamirs:
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I had a meeting with a well-informed and highly-placed Russian source who shared with me, for your benefit, some inner thoughts on condition of his anonymity. Though the West is certain that Putin wants to restore the Soviet Union, actually the Russian president did everything he could to save the Ukraine from disintegration, said the source. That’s what Russia did in order to bring peace to Ukraine:
Russia supported the West-brokered agreement of February 21, 2014, but the US still pushed for the next day (February 22) coup, or “had brokered a deal to transition power in Ukraine" , in Obama’s words.
After the coup, the South-East Ukraine did not submit to the new Kiev regime and seceded. Still, Moscow asked the Donbass rebels to refrain from carrying out their May referendum. (They disregarded Putin’s appeal).
Moscow recognised the results of sham May elections carried out by Kiev regime after the coup, and recognised Poroshenko as the president of the whole Ukraine – though there were no elections in the South East and opposition parties were banned from participating.
Moscow did not officially recognise the results of November elections in Donbass, to the chagrin of many Russian nationalists.
These steps were quite unpopular in Russian society, but Putin made them to promote a peaceful solution for Ukraine. Some warlike Donbass leaders were convinced to retire. In vain: Putin’s actions and intentions were disregarded by the US and EC. They encouraged the ‘war party’ in Kiev. “They never found a fault with Kiev, whatever they do”, said the source.
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/putin-prefers-bad-peace.html
Och sen den Putinkritiska:
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The USA’s aims are furthered the more crudely and visibly they become manifest: they need to drive Russia into a direct conflict with Ukraine and (if possible) with Europe. Simply put, they want to force Russia to take a direct part in the conflict. Whether by the introduction of troops or by the legalised supply of equipment, weapons and experts—it does not matter. Russia has failed to demonstrate her ability to fight a modern war through indirect participation. The Kremlin managed to subjugate the Militia, but any control of it is possible only in a situation of its complete dependence on illicit and unacknowledged aid. Additional control via vacationers and demonstrative killings of unruly commanders finally made the Militia a guerrilla detachment of Moscow and stripped it of its independence.
Why this happened is clear. The Militia is actively resisting the attempts of Moscow oligarchs to build the same kind of thieves’ state against which the rebellion broke out. The Militia can be coerced to fight for the interests of thieves and robbers only by force—and Moscow now has to continue its destructive policy of “seeming non-participating”—over which the US toys with the Kremlin as does a cat with a mouse. The political failure will have to be camouflaged by military force: the later it happens, the worse will be the consequences. In this case, Moscow can no longer drop everything—Crimea became a trap; the war in the Donbass and the genocide of its population conducted by Kiev allows a delay of the final settling of the Crimea question. The idea that it is necessary to finish the war in Kiev, can no more visit the heads of Moscow politicians—time was foolishly wasted, the situation turned around 180 degrees.
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It is clear that Moscow will not surrender. At least for now. Then Obama will make a helpless gesture with a sigh and say something like “Well, we did offer…,” and launch a new round of escalation.
All of this is payment for cowardice, inconsistency and betrayal. Supporters of the Kremlin’s various cunning plans, of course, will say that everything is going as it should be. Nothing special—they would say as much about any decision of the authorities. There is such a job—licking superiors. However, in real life, 2014 was a year of complete and total failure of the Kremlin’s foreign policy, which brought in its wake an internal crisis. Thus far, only an economic one. But betrayal always costs dearly, there is no sense even to discuss it. What 2015 will be is hard to say. Judging by what is happening—a logical extension of 2014.
http://slavyangrad.org/2015/02/07/kerrys-proposal/#more-4895