Ukrainas motoffensiv

The Ukrainian #counteroffensive has begun.

Activity throughout #Ukraine is consistent with a variety of indicators that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are underway across the theater.

🧵on what we’re seeing & how to evaluate this activity ⬇️

2/ Ukrainian officials have long signaled that there will not be an announcement that the #counteroffensive has begun.

3/ The #counteroffensive won’t likely unfold as a single grand operation. It will likely consist of many undertakings at numerous locations of varying size and intensity over many weeks.

4/ The initial #counteroffensive operations may be the most difficult and slowest, as they involve penetrating prepared defensive positions. Initial setbacks are to be expected. This phase may also see the highest Ukrainian losses.

5/ Militaries have long identified the penetration phase of a mechanized offensive as the most dangerous and costly. The success or failure of this phase may not be apparent for some time.

6/ Ukrainian forces are continuing to try to surprise the Russians about where the main effort will be.

ISW will not offer assessments about the weighting of Ukrainian #counteroffensive operations in real-time.

7/ Ukrainian officials yesterday announced that Ukrainian troops have moved onto the offensive in #Bakhmut.

8/ Ukrainian military officials announced yesterday that Ukrainian troops advanced 200m-1km deep in unspecified sectors of the #Bakhmut area. Russian sources are concerned about Ukrainian attacks on the southwestern/northwestern/northeastern outskirts of the city.

9/ Along with official declarations of Ukrainian offensive intent in #Bakhmut, ISW has observed a general uptick in military activity across the entire frontline, not all of it part of the Ukrainian counter-offensive effort.

10/ Russian forces are attacking, and Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in limited sectors of the #Kharkiv-#Luhansk Oblast frontline. Russian sources have claimed limited success in areas northeast of #Kupyansk over the past few days.

11/ Ukrainian forces have conducted localized attacks in the western #Donetsk-eastern #Zaporizhia oblast border area over the past few days. Russian sources have reported that some critical settlements in this sector are still contested.

12/ Ukrainian forces appear to be conducting ground attacks in western #Zaporizhia Oblast in the area south/southwest of #Orikhiv on June 7-8. Russian milbloggers have been the most concerned about this area since early 2023.

13/ Russian sources are claiming that Ukrainian forces have committed #Leopard tanks and other Western kit to these attacks, which some Western sources have confirmed.

14/ Defining any one of these sets of tactical actions as “the counteroffensive” is inappropriate. Ukrainian forces are conducting a variety of operations across the front, and the #counteroffensive operation will unfold over time.

15/ ISW will provide additional updates on the situation on the ground in #Ukraine in today’s Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

- the current stage will result in increased UA losses that will look like "inverted Wuhledar", i.e. the UA's armored and mechanized columns will encounter minefields and be hit by artillery and ATGMs. In such actions, the AU may lose even a whole brigade (4 to 5 battalions) in the next two weeks.
- in the end, the above will not matter if UA succeeds in one of the directions at the expense of losses and enters the RUS operational space pushing towards the sea (which I personally doubt due to the depth of the RUS defense) or will try to break through the next lines of defense of the RUS and fight battles with reserves. Which will be bloody for both sides.
- in the next 5 days it should be clarified where AUs will try to break through and which directions will be main and which will be auxiliary/confusing. Until then, we will be bombarded with videos and photos of broken UA equipment - because the attacker suffers several times more losses than the defenders in this phase of the operation, only then the proportions are reversed. This is due to overcoming heavily fortified positions or engineering obstacles under artillery fire, unfortunately sometimes.