__________________
Senast redigerad av gavlip 2013-07-01 kl. 10:22.
Senast redigerad av gavlip 2013-07-01 kl. 10:22.
Guld för ny religion! (goldbugs religion) 
För att det verkar handla mer om troende kring detta än fakta, kunskap och investering.
http://static.starcitygames.com/www/...0probasco1.png
För att det verkar handla mer om troende kring detta än fakta, kunskap och investering.
http://static.starcitygames.com/www/...0probasco1.png
Ja, jag vet att guldbugsen tror att de har all fakta, kunskap och att de investerar. 
Snapshot, Snapshot...dessa snapshots...
Del 1/2
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2013-01-09, 12:33: Freegold-scenariot - hur deflation blir hyperinflation. #106
***
***
SATURDAY, JUNE 29, 2013, FOFOA: Snapshot Day
ECB's (Europeiska Centralbankens) MTM - Mark-to-Market snapshots 28 dec. 2001 - 28 juni 2013:
All ECB Quaterly Gold Snapshots 12/28/01 - 6/28/13
FOFOA:
***
2012-06-17, 14:07: GULD & SILVER - En sammanfattning av investering i ädelmetaller #195
Ärligt talat: ingen aning. Det jag dock bryr mig om är att jag inte skal behöva sälja när/om det går ner till 300$. Om jag blir av med jobbet, inflationen rusar, förråden tar slut...om guldet då står i 300$ kommer jag ändå inte att ha råd att köpa det...och absolut inte sälja av då...sämsta möjliga tidspunkt att sälja i guldets historia!
Anyway, här kommer ett svar från FOFOA (fet stil) som kanske hjälper dig:
Hello SMRI,
You wrote: "Just my 2 cents but when you start predicting things like a major mkt doing absolutley unprecedented stuff like dropping 80% then going up 20x as well as HI as a given(and basically dismissing any other viewpt as absurd) I think its hurts the credibilty on the more important issues (understanding the current and near future of the economy)."
This may be another case of misunderstanding a simple concept because of the baggage you are hauling around with you. This is not a "major market move" being predicted at this blog, it is a reset, an overnight revaluation, and it will come from necessity. Yes, there is a gold bull market. But that is somewhat separate from what Freegold is about. In the end, it is about a new financial architecture. FOA said it pretty clearly here:
"This not only has everything to do with a gold bull market, it has everything to do with a changing world financial architecture. And I have to admit: if you hated our last one, you will no doubt hate this new one, too. However, [here's the caveat] everyone that is positioned in physical gold will carry this storm in fantastic shape. "
You also wrote: "FOFOA, you say people will abandon gold at exactly the wrong time as "paper" gold drops to $300/oz. Then you say you can't wait until then to buy it because no physical will be available. "it will go into hiding". I have a hard time seeing this practically."
Here's a recent email exchange I had with one reader titled "Catching a falling knife" edited slightly for brevity:
Dear FOFOA,
…Now if I had stockpiled gold from 2000 onwards I would have a lot of ounces and feel very secure for my family, but as I only came into the game late 2010 onwards, each ounce has been "very expensive" in relation to other living costs, so despite real serious efforts already I would still like to secure my family's future as best I can and am trying to weigh up a balanced way of doing so ...
If i have it right, just before the eventual USD HI or transition to free gold, the actual spot price (which is the "general" public's perception of the "value / cost" of gold") will plummet rapidly towards ZERO.
Is there ANY possibility that during this panic, physical gold will still be able to be picked up at spot, and could one take a small gamble on some retained savings and wait to try and catch a falling knife as this happens (assuming they had a small stockpile anyway so it was not a purely speculative or greedy play)?
Thanks again
XXXX
Hi XXXX,
On catching a falling knife, of course anything is possible when the markets are in disarray, like your neighbor might turn out to have a box full of gold coins and be happy to sell it to you as the $PoG is plunging. But unless you are a gold dealer yourself, here’s what I think you’ll most likely encounter:
As the $PoG is plunging, yes, lots of people who don’t understand gold and don’t understand what’s happening will be puking up their gold coins to the dealers. But I think you’ll find that most dealers will be buying only, not selling.
The reason is a little complicated, but suffice it to say that you are not the only one who has this idea. And I’m not talking about the dealers buying in order to keep the gold themselves. I’m talking about the way dealers work, through a network, and there will be someone much larger than you on the other end of that network with a standing overbid for any physical coming into the network. In the past I’ve called it that giant sucking sound on the other end of the dealer network that will prevent us shrimps from buying during the collapse:
"…that GIANT sucking sound you hear when you call your dealer and mention that you have some gold for sale will be the Giants somewhere at the other end of the dealer network with their unlimited currency, their insatiable demand for gold, and their standing over-bid acting like a giant concubine sucking a golden golf ball down a tiny hose. Let's call these Giants "the buyers of last resort" for gold. Another said they stand ready to buy any and all physical gold offered for sale.
On the other hand, that sound of thousands of telephones ringing in the background, when you call your dealer to sell your silver, will be all the other shrimps placing their sell orders at the same time…"
I can’t say at what price you won’t be able to get any physical. But I’ll tell you something right now that you will not believe until the time comes and you do exactly as I say. I don’t think you’ll get any physical below $1,000. But when the price is falling fast, say $50/hr. or more, psychologically it is almost impossible to pull the trigger in the middle of the fall knowing it will most definitely fall further. So I believe that very few who attempt this will be successful. Make sense?
I think that either it happens soon and you’ll regret not buying more when you had the money and the chance to buy easily. Or else things carry on a while longer and $1,600 will start to look really cheap in a little while and you’ll regret waiting for a lower price. I think those two regrets are more likely than the regret that you bought too high. And in that latter scenario, if the $PoG keeps rising and rising for another year or more, you are likely to chicken out of your plan to catch a falling knife and just give in to buying some more at, say, $2,100/oz. Factoring in an unknown timeline and known psychological weaknesses, I think it’s better overall to just do as Another advised:
"Think now, if you are a person of "great worth" is it not better to acquire gold over years, at better prices? If you are one of "small worth", can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you, it is an easy path to follow!" --ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) 1/10/98
Sincerely,
FOFOA
Thanks FOFOA,
I truly appreciate you taking the time to reply at length and I will follow in the footsteps of giants.
Best Wishes
XXXX
***
Del 1/2-----------------------------------------------------------
***
2013-01-09, 12:33: Freegold-scenariot - hur deflation blir hyperinflation. #106
Citat:
Hej allihopa,
Och god fortsättning!
Här är vi anno 2013 och ingen Freegold än. Det verkar alltid vara "just around the corner" but "not quite there"...
Anyway, har lite tankar på en ny post, Freegold förklarat mha. typ 5-6 grafer, men det går inte att posta bilder här? Hm, skal se vad jag lyckas med, gör det klart under helgen i så fall.
För övrigt så har FOFOA försökt sig på timing igen. 2013 - Year of the Window. Om priset (i €) på ECB's guld går ner under så kallade MTM - Mark-to-Market snapshots (kvartalsvis) så betyder det att det officiella stödet för pappers guld är över. Det ena benet - borta. Det andra benet - den privata marknaden - verkar också ha avtagit. Allt fler analytiker menar att bull market i guld är över.
Men andra ord, om bägge benen blir borta, så faller (pappers) guldet. Och någonting nytt kommer. Här föredrar vi att kalla det Freegold...
Och god fortsättning!
Här är vi anno 2013 och ingen Freegold än. Det verkar alltid vara "just around the corner" but "not quite there"...
Anyway, har lite tankar på en ny post, Freegold förklarat mha. typ 5-6 grafer, men det går inte att posta bilder här? Hm, skal se vad jag lyckas med, gör det klart under helgen i så fall.
För övrigt så har FOFOA försökt sig på timing igen. 2013 - Year of the Window. Om priset (i €) på ECB's guld går ner under så kallade MTM - Mark-to-Market snapshots (kvartalsvis) så betyder det att det officiella stödet för pappers guld är över. Det ena benet - borta. Det andra benet - den privata marknaden - verkar också ha avtagit. Allt fler analytiker menar att bull market i guld är över.
Men andra ord, om bägge benen blir borta, så faller (pappers) guldet. Och någonting nytt kommer. Här föredrar vi att kalla det Freegold...
***
***
SATURDAY, JUNE 29, 2013, FOFOA: Snapshot Day
ECB's (Europeiska Centralbankens) MTM - Mark-to-Market snapshots 28 dec. 2001 - 28 juni 2013:
All ECB Quaterly Gold Snapshots 12/28/01 - 6/28/13
FOFOA:
Citat:
***
Now obviously the specific timing of July 4, 2013 and the Hobbit reference were made in jest, but as I mentioned in my New Year's Day post, Ari has been closely following everything written by the central bankers in particular for more than a decade. And he's also one of the smartest people I've met in more than a decade, so I don't take anything he says lightly.
With that in mind, as the dawn of 2013 was approaching, I decided it would be fun to put the only timing prediction I'd ever seen him make to the test. I'm sure he was less enthused about this than I was, but I thought it would be fun! I suppose it's not really fair to call it a timing prediction, because it wasn't, and it was also made in private by email. So it was more like a working hypothesis that he shared with me way back in 2010. And this is actually a much better way to view it because, not only is it more fair to Ari, but also because I had an observable phenomenon that I could use to test the hypothesis once every three months. Snapshot Day!
With that in mind, as the dawn of 2013 was approaching, I decided it would be fun to put the only timing prediction I'd ever seen him make to the test. I'm sure he was less enthused about this than I was, but I thought it would be fun! I suppose it's not really fair to call it a timing prediction, because it wasn't, and it was also made in private by email. So it was more like a working hypothesis that he shared with me way back in 2010. And this is actually a much better way to view it because, not only is it more fair to Ari, but also because I had an observable phenomenon that I could use to test the hypothesis once every three months. Snapshot Day!
***
2012-06-17, 14:07: GULD & SILVER - En sammanfattning av investering i ädelmetaller #195
Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av forren1
Tror du att man kommer kunna köpa fysiskt guld för ca. 300$??
Ärligt talat: ingen aning. Det jag dock bryr mig om är att jag inte skal behöva sälja när/om det går ner till 300$. Om jag blir av med jobbet, inflationen rusar, förråden tar slut...om guldet då står i 300$ kommer jag ändå inte att ha råd att köpa det...och absolut inte sälja av då...sämsta möjliga tidspunkt att sälja i guldets historia!
Anyway, här kommer ett svar från FOFOA (fet stil) som kanske hjälper dig:
Hello SMRI,
You wrote: "Just my 2 cents but when you start predicting things like a major mkt doing absolutley unprecedented stuff like dropping 80% then going up 20x as well as HI as a given(and basically dismissing any other viewpt as absurd) I think its hurts the credibilty on the more important issues (understanding the current and near future of the economy)."
This may be another case of misunderstanding a simple concept because of the baggage you are hauling around with you. This is not a "major market move" being predicted at this blog, it is a reset, an overnight revaluation, and it will come from necessity. Yes, there is a gold bull market. But that is somewhat separate from what Freegold is about. In the end, it is about a new financial architecture. FOA said it pretty clearly here:
"This not only has everything to do with a gold bull market, it has everything to do with a changing world financial architecture. And I have to admit: if you hated our last one, you will no doubt hate this new one, too. However, [here's the caveat] everyone that is positioned in physical gold will carry this storm in fantastic shape. "
You also wrote: "FOFOA, you say people will abandon gold at exactly the wrong time as "paper" gold drops to $300/oz. Then you say you can't wait until then to buy it because no physical will be available. "it will go into hiding". I have a hard time seeing this practically."
Here's a recent email exchange I had with one reader titled "Catching a falling knife" edited slightly for brevity:
Dear FOFOA,
…Now if I had stockpiled gold from 2000 onwards I would have a lot of ounces and feel very secure for my family, but as I only came into the game late 2010 onwards, each ounce has been "very expensive" in relation to other living costs, so despite real serious efforts already I would still like to secure my family's future as best I can and am trying to weigh up a balanced way of doing so ...
If i have it right, just before the eventual USD HI or transition to free gold, the actual spot price (which is the "general" public's perception of the "value / cost" of gold") will plummet rapidly towards ZERO.
Is there ANY possibility that during this panic, physical gold will still be able to be picked up at spot, and could one take a small gamble on some retained savings and wait to try and catch a falling knife as this happens (assuming they had a small stockpile anyway so it was not a purely speculative or greedy play)?
Thanks again
XXXX
Hi XXXX,
On catching a falling knife, of course anything is possible when the markets are in disarray, like your neighbor might turn out to have a box full of gold coins and be happy to sell it to you as the $PoG is plunging. But unless you are a gold dealer yourself, here’s what I think you’ll most likely encounter:
As the $PoG is plunging, yes, lots of people who don’t understand gold and don’t understand what’s happening will be puking up their gold coins to the dealers. But I think you’ll find that most dealers will be buying only, not selling.
The reason is a little complicated, but suffice it to say that you are not the only one who has this idea. And I’m not talking about the dealers buying in order to keep the gold themselves. I’m talking about the way dealers work, through a network, and there will be someone much larger than you on the other end of that network with a standing overbid for any physical coming into the network. In the past I’ve called it that giant sucking sound on the other end of the dealer network that will prevent us shrimps from buying during the collapse:
"…that GIANT sucking sound you hear when you call your dealer and mention that you have some gold for sale will be the Giants somewhere at the other end of the dealer network with their unlimited currency, their insatiable demand for gold, and their standing over-bid acting like a giant concubine sucking a golden golf ball down a tiny hose. Let's call these Giants "the buyers of last resort" for gold. Another said they stand ready to buy any and all physical gold offered for sale.
On the other hand, that sound of thousands of telephones ringing in the background, when you call your dealer to sell your silver, will be all the other shrimps placing their sell orders at the same time…"
I can’t say at what price you won’t be able to get any physical. But I’ll tell you something right now that you will not believe until the time comes and you do exactly as I say. I don’t think you’ll get any physical below $1,000. But when the price is falling fast, say $50/hr. or more, psychologically it is almost impossible to pull the trigger in the middle of the fall knowing it will most definitely fall further. So I believe that very few who attempt this will be successful. Make sense?
I think that either it happens soon and you’ll regret not buying more when you had the money and the chance to buy easily. Or else things carry on a while longer and $1,600 will start to look really cheap in a little while and you’ll regret waiting for a lower price. I think those two regrets are more likely than the regret that you bought too high. And in that latter scenario, if the $PoG keeps rising and rising for another year or more, you are likely to chicken out of your plan to catch a falling knife and just give in to buying some more at, say, $2,100/oz. Factoring in an unknown timeline and known psychological weaknesses, I think it’s better overall to just do as Another advised:
"Think now, if you are a person of "great worth" is it not better to acquire gold over years, at better prices? If you are one of "small worth", can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you, it is an easy path to follow!" --ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) 1/10/98
Sincerely,
FOFOA
Thanks FOFOA,
I truly appreciate you taking the time to reply at length and I will follow in the footsteps of giants.
Best Wishes
XXXX
***
Snapshot, Snapshot...dessa snapshots... Del 2/2
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***
2012-06-17, 14:07: GULD & SILVER - En sammanfattning av investering i ädelmetaller #195
Further, förstå att 99.99 % av oss som postar här är "shrimps". Victorthecleaner förklarar det väldigt bra i denna kommentar:
Take care\Etnad
***
Måhända att någon därute, nämner om guld, för någon annan. Händer från och till. MEN, tror inte att man i så fall nämner FOFOA, Ari, ECB's Mark-to-Market guldreserv eller Freegold för den delen.
För komplicerat. Detta gillar inte folk (99%). Man vill vara som alla andra. Rätta sig i ledet. Inget konstigt egentligen, mänsklig natur.
\Etnad
-----------------------------------------------------------
***
2012-06-17, 14:07: GULD & SILVER - En sammanfattning av investering i ädelmetaller #195
Further, förstå att 99.99 % av oss som postar här är "shrimps". Victorthecleaner förklarar det väldigt bra i denna kommentar:
Citat:
Seeing the discussion about gold going to $300 and making some bargain purchases, perhaps I can offer another definition of 'giant'.
Firstly, here is the opposite of a 'giant'. Imagine you have been reading FOFOA for a while and then spent your entire savings on 10 ounces of gold. You are proud of your achievement and you call it 'all in'. Well, that's what it is. But now you are worried. If your employer skips one pay cheque, you will run out of reserves and you may have to sell your gold. Timing is suddenly an issue. When will 'it' happen? If you can save another $1000 of your salary until the end of the year, should you buy gold immediately or wait for the price to drop. To the hell with the timing. You cannot wait!
Here is the contrast. You own two companies. The dividends easily feed your family. You have land, some real estate, a fat stock portfolio, a healthy balance in your bank account(s) and some valuable paintings in your villa. Plus some gold, perhaps 20% of your net worth, some of it in your safe at home, some hidden in your holiday home, some allocated with a private bank in Switzerland. You are not 'all in' - far from it. But you are a (small) 'giant': You are relaxed. You don't care about the timing. You can afford to watch events unfold. If the reset happens tomorrow, you will make a killing. As a bonus, your fine art, your companies, your land, your houses will still be there. If the reset takes another ten years, then so be it. If the stock market crashes first, you have enough cash to increase you stock allocation from 20% to 40%. Should the gold price crash to $300, you have enough resources to place orders successively all the way down from $1200. You are in no hurry. Time is always on your side, you are well positioned, and you have the resources to seize an opportunity if one presents itself. You are a (small) 'giant'.
If you run a central bank and issue your own fiat currency for your people and, on top of this, you have some 1000+ tonnes as a reserve, again time is on your side. You are in no hurry and you can watch the events unfold. You are a (large) 'giant'.
Firstly, here is the opposite of a 'giant'. Imagine you have been reading FOFOA for a while and then spent your entire savings on 10 ounces of gold. You are proud of your achievement and you call it 'all in'. Well, that's what it is. But now you are worried. If your employer skips one pay cheque, you will run out of reserves and you may have to sell your gold. Timing is suddenly an issue. When will 'it' happen? If you can save another $1000 of your salary until the end of the year, should you buy gold immediately or wait for the price to drop. To the hell with the timing. You cannot wait!
Here is the contrast. You own two companies. The dividends easily feed your family. You have land, some real estate, a fat stock portfolio, a healthy balance in your bank account(s) and some valuable paintings in your villa. Plus some gold, perhaps 20% of your net worth, some of it in your safe at home, some hidden in your holiday home, some allocated with a private bank in Switzerland. You are not 'all in' - far from it. But you are a (small) 'giant': You are relaxed. You don't care about the timing. You can afford to watch events unfold. If the reset happens tomorrow, you will make a killing. As a bonus, your fine art, your companies, your land, your houses will still be there. If the reset takes another ten years, then so be it. If the stock market crashes first, you have enough cash to increase you stock allocation from 20% to 40%. Should the gold price crash to $300, you have enough resources to place orders successively all the way down from $1200. You are in no hurry. Time is always on your side, you are well positioned, and you have the resources to seize an opportunity if one presents itself. You are a (small) 'giant'.
If you run a central bank and issue your own fiat currency for your people and, on top of this, you have some 1000+ tonnes as a reserve, again time is on your side. You are in no hurry and you can watch the events unfold. You are a (large) 'giant'.
Take care\Etnad
***
Måhända att någon därute, nämner om guld, för någon annan. Händer från och till. MEN, tror inte att man i så fall nämner FOFOA, Ari, ECB's Mark-to-Market guldreserv eller Freegold för den delen.
För komplicerat. Detta gillar inte folk (99%). Man vill vara som alla andra. Rätta sig i ledet. Inget konstigt egentligen, mänsklig natur.
\Etnad
__________________
Senast redigerad av jojoh 2013-07-02 kl. 16:36.
Senast redigerad av jojoh 2013-07-02 kl. 16:36.
Prequel to forren1's question
---------------------------------
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2012-06-14, 20:47: GULD & SILVER - En sammanfattning av investering i ädelmetaller #183
Naturligtvis först och främst: matförråd och cash. Cash i handen inte i banken. Som räcker i flera månader. Samma med mat.
Varför?
Vid ett tidspunkt kommer (pappers) "longs" att sälja av all guld. Priset kommer rasa kanske ner mot 300$. Då vill du absolut inte bli tvungen att sälja - du måste hålla ut tills ny marknad för endast fysiskt guld "emerges from the ashes". Det kan dröja allt från 0 - 6 månader.
Därav matförråd, cash, silver...när startskottet väl går...kommer vi alla att springa.
***
Kanske är de frågorna och svaren intressantare idag än när de skrevs "Once Upon a Time"
---------------------------------
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2012-06-14, 20:47: GULD & SILVER - En sammanfattning av investering i ädelmetaller #183
Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av forren1
Jag tror på att dollarns värde inom en ganska snar framtid kommer gå till noll. Jag har köpt på mig så mycket guld och silver jag kan. Men finns det några andra åtgärder man borde göra innan det kollapsar?
Typ ta ut pengar från banken? Köpa på sig massa mat? Tror ni att det kommer finns mat i affärerna när dollarn kollapsar?
Typ ta ut pengar från banken? Köpa på sig massa mat? Tror ni att det kommer finns mat i affärerna när dollarn kollapsar?
Naturligtvis först och främst: matförråd och cash. Cash i handen inte i banken. Som räcker i flera månader. Samma med mat.
Varför?
Vid ett tidspunkt kommer (pappers) "longs" att sälja av all guld. Priset kommer rasa kanske ner mot 300$. Då vill du absolut inte bli tvungen att sälja - du måste hålla ut tills ny marknad för endast fysiskt guld "emerges from the ashes". Det kan dröja allt från 0 - 6 månader.
Därav matförråd, cash, silver...när startskottet väl går...kommer vi alla att springa.
***
Kanske är de frågorna och svaren intressantare idag än när de skrevs "Once Upon a Time"
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