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Ursprungligen postat av
JustinTrudeau
Alltså detta är inte i närheten av någon bubbla. Ännu. Denna värdering är mycket rimlig i en tid då elbilen mycket väl kan vara framtiden. Och Tesla har klart störst marknadsandel.
Nej bubblan börjar när blankarna har kapitulerat. När varannan analytiker på CNBC har aktien i sin portfölj. När Tesla tjurarna har fullständigt tagit över den här tråden och vi ser enorma mängder raket emotes spammas här.
Bara runt 10% som är blankat i nuläget. Tycker inte man behöver leta hårt för att hitta tjurar för vilka träd växer till himlen lite varstans. Saxat från en believer på placera:
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Rätt ny med aktier och alla pratar om långsiktighet och försiktighet. Gjort 300% på ett par månader första miljonen gick galet fort.. bara köra på...
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Kommer tesla kunna dela ut runt 750$ per aktie om något år eller tror ni dom köper upp alla andra bilföretag. Känslan är att man köper BMW och Porsche först. Men en det utdelning är ju bra också.
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Grym uppgång idag igen indikeras. Redan 1416 $ premarket. 1500 $ garanterat. Tänk pe på typ 500. vinst på 500$ dollar per aktie och den borde leta sig mot 25000$ kanske redan om 1-2 år.... håll i er raketen har lyft....
Inte för att klanka på småsparare, men så här låter det på många ställen. Enda platsen det råder något sånär jämvikt bear/bull är FTs kommentarsfält.
Mirabaud Securities, det enda huset som satte Wirecards värde till noll, har å sin sida utfärdat en varningslista om tjugo punkter för "Big Disaster". Nämner inte vilket bolag det rör sig om tyvärr..
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1. Massively promotional CEO who actively looks for publicity and spends a lot of time courting Wall Street/investors etc and is very media savvy
2. Huge CEO/Senior Management compensation package NOT tied to cash flow or Earnings but just to Sales and/or the stock price, creating the possibility of egregious wealth creation if the stock goes up a lot. Huge pledging of collateral by the CEO in return for margin loans to fund a billionaire lifestyle
3. Management compensation generally way out of line with peers despite notably less profitability
4. Glossy future projections that have a habit over a long period of being proven to be too optimistic
5. Questionable product quality, ie defects (boon??) or debatable technological leads over similar products
6. Some evidence of self certifying, whether it be through strange international subsidiaries or not having an Auditor or experiencing unusual and slightly sudden end of quarter surges in revenues, up to and including the last day
7. Unusual or unverified and large Receivables in a business where the product is exchanged for cash up front
8. Evidence that the company is existing on a shoestring, not paying Suppliers, Employees, Landlords etc
9. Unusual margin progression, with SG +A going down over time despite a rising global footprint, or GM's staying flat despite much lower ASP's over time, for instance.
10. High levels of Gross Debt. Cash balances not matched by notable Interest Income thereby suggesting they are fraudulent
11. High employee turnover, especially in the LEGAL and FINANCE areas. Co-founders or Board members leaving.
12. Aggressive pursuit via paid third parties and/or “heavies” of any critics or people who have too many questions, which in any case are “boring”
13. Dislike of Hedge Funds
14. Possible Narcissistic Personality Disorder on the part of the CEO. Additional points if he/she uses Twitter a lot
15. Large cabal of outcasts/weirdos/bloggers/Twitter groups who have been saying for years that everything is amiss but just get a lot of criticism because the stock keeps going up ergo they must be idiots
16. Slowing top line growth rate despite all the hoopla and supposed “growth stock” status. Evidence of competitors rapidly eroding unsustainably high market share.
17. Loss making. Ideally never made a profit but likes to pretend it did or failing that, that it will for sure in 2-3 years due to highly questionable new products. But the 2-3 years gets pushed out constantly
18. Extensive use/exclusive use of NON-GAAP Accounting and occasional bridging to get from a Net Loss to a (small) Net Profit via poorly explained one-offs/Other Items/unusually large Credits of some kind in a desperate attempt to get into an Index by illicit means
19. Weak Board, preferably also small and ideally in hock in some way to the CEO, who therefore do his/her bidding. Helps if some of them are related physically to the CEO.
20. Gullible media, gullible analysts and dozens of paid bloggers who produce Price Targets out of nowhere based on “Option Value” or put another way products that are at least 5 years away from having any material impact.
