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http://www.brexitshambles.com/why-is...virus-crisis/?
"Revealingly, Lyons and Halligan propose exchanging notes with many large economies (they mention Mexico and South Korea) whereby these countries agree to offer the UK the same deal as they offer the UK qua EU member state.
There are two things about this: first, it is a strange retreat on the idea that outside the EU the UK would be negotiating much better deals. And secondly, it is strange to imagine that a large, powerful economy would want to offer tiddler UK the same terms as it has – after long negotiations and many trade offs – to the far bigger European bloc.
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Lyons and Halligan say that even if the City is shut out of the EU and no longer the official centre for European finance, London will not only remain ‘the financial capital of Europe’ and could ‘even enhance its status’. But I’m not so sure.
First of all, the EU will probably make it illegal to conduct trades that could endanger the financial stability of the euro in an unregulated London market. Euro denoted securities will be traded in the EU instead. Lyons argues that banks trade euros in New York, but to the extent that this is true, the argument cuts both ways. How many of those big US financial institutions – the ones that that really govern the finance world – will relocate back to the US? They can trade as ‘third countries’ much more comfortably from New York.
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In fact, if you look at the UK’s own accounts, as collected by the Office of National Statistics, which obviously none of the Brexiters have, you can see that in terms of services, which are the lion’s share (80%) of UK exports, yes the main market taken country by country is the USA but the next seven markets are EU member states, Germany and France at the top. Germany imports some £5 billion of services, a figure that dwarfs India’s imports of £55 million by a factor of 100.
Ignoring that, the authors instead put great weight on freight train technology, part of China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative, having carried goods directly from China to the UK, to ‘London’s Barking Station’, in just eighteen days. Completing such a trip by sea would take around six weeks. Alas, the significance of this is illusory. The goods on such a train are not so perishable that the time saving matters, and the costs of moving containers on ships is significantly less than that of using railways. One recent study found that maritime transportation could save some $2,000-per container over railways when moving containers between Long Beach California and Memphis Tennessee. even though the railway distance is twice as long.
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No wonder, that by the spring of 2020, Britain’s farmers were looking dumbstruck at the news that not only have they lost their seasonal workforce, but they will lose a quarter of their subsides too (and that’s just the first bite)- while car workers in the north, have been fearful that their factories might relocate to mainland Europe under the impact of both tariffs and other checks.
‘Don’t worry, though’, the Brexiters say. Adding that for farming, new subsidies will be given for activities broadly described as environmental, including sequestering carbon dioxide. Of course, British farmers export to the EU and after Brexit, they will face considerable hurdles, so it makes sense in a way to force British farmers to swap from growing crops and grazing cows and turn them into ‘custodians of nature’. Totally missing in their discussion of post-Brexit fishing policy, is the fact that the EU currently buys 80% of the fish caught in British waters.
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Their jaundiced history of the European Union continues with scheming, selfish Germany next bailing out the poorer countries, with this seen not as balancing the problems earlier mentioned but only as a breach of the ‘no bailouts’ clause in the rules for the single currency. Anyway, they say, the bailouts did not help the ordinary people of those countries only the elites. That’s the Brexit mantra, of course, yet how have the smaller European economies done since the crisis?
In 2015, in a CNN article entitled ‘Europe’s bailed out economies are booming: except Greece, of course’ Ivana Kottasova says very plainly that the medicine did work.
Spain, the fourth biggest economy in the eurozone had become one of the fastest growing developed economies in the world. Ireland, first eurozone country to fall into recession in 2008 had regained its ‘Celtic Tiger’ role by 2014. with its stock market rising 17.5% in 2015.
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Portugal too successfully exited the bailout program in 2014, while Cyprus exited the bailout with cash to spare in 2016. Even Greece eventually emerged from its brush with what might have been a catastrophic exit from the euro in August 2018."