Situationen i Ukraina just nu, del 4

In an 11–23 December 2015 study by the Razumkov Centre taken in all regions of Ukraine other than Russian-annexed Crimea, and separatist controlled Donetsk, and Luhansk, a majority considered Ukrainian their native language (60%), followed by Russian (15%), while 22% used both languages equally. Two percent held an other native language.

Accordance with International Law of the Unilateral Declaration of Independence In Respect of Kosovo was a request for an advisory opinion referred to the International Court of Justice by the United Nations General Assembly regarding the 2008 Kosovo declaration of independence.

On 15 August 2008, Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremić officially filed a request at the United Nations seeking opinion of the International Court of Justice.[10]
On 9 October 2008, the UN Secretariat informed the ICJ that it had begun the preparation of a dossier containing all documents relevant to the legal question before the Court, representing the body of international law on the question.[17]
Aside from introductory notes, the dossier contained a copy of UN Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999), deliberations of the Security Council, official reports on the activities of the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), reports on the NATO-led security force KFOR, regulations and international agreements entered into by UNMIK, reports on the activities of the Provisional Institutions of Self-Government and on the Kosovo Status Process. Also included were 'general international law instruments – universal and regional', such as copies of the UN Charter, Helsinki Final Act, and various agreements on civil and human rights, as well as other legal documents from the wider Balkans (such as the rulings of the Badinter Commission).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adviso...f_independence

Enligt FN-stadgan är FN öppet för alla stater som vill arbeta för fred. De måste åta sig de skyldigheter som stadgan ålägger medlemmarna och vara villiga och kapabla att uppfylla skyldigheterna. Stater antas som medlemmar i Förenta Nationerna genom ett beslut i generalförsamlingen på rekommendation av säkerhetsrådet.
Så här går det till:

Staten lämnar in en ansökan till generalsekreteraren samt ett brev som formellt intygar att staten accepterar FN-stadgans förpliktelser. Säkerhetsrådet beaktar ansökan. För att ansökan skall gå vidare måste 9 av rådets 15 medlemmar svara ja, förutsatt att ingen av de ständiga medlemmarna – Frankrike, Kina, USA, Ryssland och Storbritannien – har röstat emot ansökan. Om säkerhetsrådet rekommenderar inträde presenteras rekommendationen för generalförsamlingen som tar den i beaktande. Två tredjedelars majoritet i generalförsamlingen behövs för att den nya staten skall få bli medlem.
Medlemskapet träder i kraft det datum som resolutionen för inträde antas.
https://www.unric.org/sv/information-on-fn/20?start=1

– Det är första gången i modern historia som en demokratisk stat, som är medlem i FN, fråntas en del av sitt land, sa Serbiens president Boris Tadic upprört nyligen.

Den ryske presidenten Vladimir Putin har också uttryckt farhågor för att ”fallet Kosovo” kan bli vägledande för självständighetssträvanden bland provinser i de forna sovjetrepublikerna, något som Martti Ahtisaari helt tillbakavisar. Han anser att Kosovo är unikt och inte kommer att utgöra något prejudikat för andra olösta konflikter.

Vissa bedömare tror att om Ryssland stoppar förslaget med sitt veto så kommer den kosovoalbanska ledningen på egen hand förklara provinsen som självständig stat med förhoppningen att USA och EU-länderna snabbt kommer att erkänna landet.
EU:s länder inte överens
Men EU är inte helt enat i frågan - vissa länder som Storbritannien och Sverige stöder helt Ahtisaaris tankar, medan till exempel Grekland och Slovakien är mer tveksamma.

De går åtminstone delvis mer på den ryska linjen att Serbiens rättigheter måste tillgodoses på ett bättre sätt än i förslaget. EU-staterna har dock enats om att det är säkerhetsrådet som ska avgöra frågan.
https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artike...rtikel=1292366

“We can speak of sustainable growth when there are sustainable growth drivers such as higher investment, low capacity utilization, rising households’ incomes, which with some delay filters into consumer demand, which drives the economy,” said Andrey Movchan, an economist at the Carnegie Moscow Centre. “We have none of that,” Movchan said. “We are moving slowly towards a demographic pitfall, we have almost zero non-state investment ... All developments favor GDP contraction rather than growth.”

Russian is used at home by 43–46% of the population of the country (in other words a similar proportion to Ukrainian) and Russophones make a majority of the population in Eastern and Southern regions of Ukraine:

Autonomous Republic of Crimea — 97% of the population
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — 72%
Donetsk Oblast — 93%
Zaporizhia Oblast — 81%
Luhansk Oblast — 89%
Mykolaiv Oblast — 66%
Odessa Oblast — 85%
Kharkiv Oblast — 74%

Russian language dominates in informal communication in the capital of Ukraine, Kiev. It is also used by a sizeable linguistic minority (4-5% of the total population) in Central and Western Ukraine. 83% of Ukrainians responding to a 2008 Gallup poll preferred to use Russian instead of Ukrainian to take the survey.

Ukraine's state debt grows by 4.77% in U.S. dollars, by 2.17% in hryvnias in Dec 2018 – Finance ministry
The aggregate state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in December 2018 increased by 4.77%, or by $3.56 billion, to $78.32 billion, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/561309.html

Controversy surrounding Ukrainian budget for 2019
2019 budget is supposed to ensure the growth of Ukrainian economy, but economists are presenting conflicting opinions and raise several doubts.

“This is a balanced budget that will enable our country to grow. The only cause of concern is debt. It is an enormous challenge. Together with our foreign partners, we are looking for a painless solution,” argued Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more skeptical about Ukraine’s prospects — in November it lowered the GDP growth forecast for next year from 3.3 per cent to 2.7 per cent. According to the World Bank (WB), the Ukrainian economy may grow at a rate of 3.5 per cent

The government assumes that in 2019 the national debt will decrease from the level of 60 per cent of the GDP to 52 per cent. This will not result from economic growth, however. The debt will be reduced due to the fact that the scheduled repayment of huge amounts of loans taken out by Ukraine in recent years — for a total of USD15bn — occurs in 2019. The amounts of debt repayments will peak in the Q1’19, when the government will have to pay back UAH112.5bn, out of which UAH59bn will go to the repayment of internal debt, and UAH53.5bn will go to foreign creditors.

At the same time, the Ukrainian economist points out a significant detail: “authorities assume GDP growth of 3 per cent, and in 2018 the Ukrainian economy was growing at a rate of 3.5 per cent. The slowdown in the rate of GDP growth means that the economic situation will deteriorate,” argues Mr. Novak.

According to the estimates of the Accounting Chamber, there is a huge deficit of UAH93bn in the budget that is not taken into account by the government. One of its sources is the fact, that the actual UAH exchange rate against the USD does not match the rate assumed by the government. Although, from the point of view of the average Ukrainian citizen the devaluation of the national currency has been enormous, it is still significantly lower than planned — in the budget for 2018 an average annual exchange rate of UAH29.3/USD1 was planned, while in reality the average exchange rate for the H1’18 was just UAH27/USD1. This translates into reduced budget revenues expressed in the UAH, which in turn produces the budget deficit. According to the Accounting Chamber the situation will be similar in the next year.

Ukrainian MP Roman Semenukha, from the Polish-Ukrainian Parliamentary Group, points to another threat. “There is great doubt as to whether the revenues part of the 2019 budget is properly calculated and realistic. For example, the authors of the budget assumed that privatization revenues would amount to UAH17bn, which is not justified in any way. This is an unrealistic amount, which has not been reached in the previous years,” commented Mr. Semenukha.
https://financialobserver.eu/cse-and...dget-for-2019/

Tänk att det inte ens blev topp 50.

2011: -1,8
2012: -3,6
2013: -4,4
2014: -4,6

2015: -1,6
2016: -2,3
2017: -1,4
2018: -1,9